A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary

This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes why people support government-funded foreign aid instead of donating voluntarily, examining and critiquing several theories including virtue signaling, coordination problems, and time-inconsistent preferences. Longer summary

Scott examines why people support government-funded foreign aid rather than just donating directly, pushing back against the 'other people's money' argument. He considers and critiques several explanations: the force multiplier theory (seizing opponents' money), virtue signaling through voting, psychological free-riding on knowing problems are solved, coordination problems requiring bundling, transaction costs that make voluntary systems impractical, and time-inconsistent preferences where people's long-term values differ from their moment-to-moment impulses. Scott concludes by proposing a thought experiment where tax forms include an opt-out box for foreign aid, predicting most people wouldn't use it, suggesting the issue is more complex than simply wanting to spend others' money. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that increasing housing density in a city may actually increase local prices due to induced demand, while lowering prices nationally. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges Matt Yglesias's claim that building more houses lowers local house prices. He argues that while this may be true on a marginal level, looking at the extremes shows a different picture. The densest US cities (New York, San Francisco) are also the most expensive, while the least dense areas have the lowest prices. Scott proposes that increasing density in a city like Oakland would likely increase its prices due to induced demand, as it becomes more attractive to people seeking big city amenities. He suggests that building more houses would lower prices nationwide, but not necessarily in the specific city where construction occurs, creating a coordination problem for housing policy. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares political spending to the almond industry, revealing surprisingly low amounts in politics due to coordination problems. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprisingly low amount of money in politics compared to other industries, using the almond industry as a benchmark. He notes that all US spending on candidates, PACs, lobbying, think tanks, and advocacy organizations combined is less than the annual revenue of the almond industry. The post examines various sectors of political spending and media properties, highlighting their relatively low monetary value. Scott discusses three reasons why this is surprising: ordinary people's political engagement, wealthy individuals' interests, and corporate influence post-Citizens United. He considers potential explanations, including Ansolabehere's argument about the ineffectiveness of political spending, but ultimately suggests that coordination problems are the main factor preventing more money from entering politics. The post concludes by drawing a parallel between political spending and charitable giving, arguing that the same coordination problems affect both areas. Shorter summary

Scott examines why the rich appear to influence politics despite theoretical barriers, proposing that moral philosophies may emerge to solve wealthy coordination problems. Longer summary

This post explores the paradox of how the rich seem to influence politics despite the free-rider problem that should theoretically prevent such coordination. Scott starts by explaining why it's not in an individual rich person's self-interest to donate to political causes, even if the outcome would benefit them. He then proposes two possible explanations: either the rich influence politics through 'soft power', or they participate due to sincere moral beliefs that happen to align with their financial interests. The latter explanation leads to a fascinating hypothesis about how moral philosophies might 'spring up' to solve coordination problems among the wealthy. Scott concludes by noting the implications of this idea, including its potential application to other conspiracy theories and why the poor don't seem to coordinate as effectively. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Singer's book on Marx, finding Marx's ideas deeply flawed, particularly his refusal to plan for communist governance and his belief in infinitely malleable human nature. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Peter Singer's 'Marx: A Very Short Introduction', finding Marx's ideas even more problematic than he initially thought. He criticizes Marx's refusal to plan for communist governance, his belief in the non-existence of human nature, and his naive assumptions about coordination. Scott does acknowledge one insightful aspect of Marx's thought related to collective irrationality, but notes this wasn't original to Marx. The review ends with Scott suggesting that the real challenge for Marxist intellectuals should be developing systems that solve coordination problems better than capitalism. Shorter summary

Scott explores the concept of an 'Economists' Paradise' to derive a form of contractualism as a basis for morality, potentially grounding utilitarianism and resolving some of its paradoxes. Longer summary

Scott explores the concept of an 'Economists' Paradise' where all game-theoretic problems are solved and all transactions are voluntary and honest. He uses this to derive a form of contractualism as a basis for morality, suggesting it might ground utilitarianism and help resolve some of its paradoxes. The post discusses how this ideal state might solve issues like bullying and world hunger, and how it relates to concepts like Rawls' Veil of Ignorance. Scott concludes by proposing the metaphor of an 'Invisible Nation' to represent this ideal moral framework. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Moloch as a metaphor for destructive societal coordination problems, using various examples to show how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of Moloch as a metaphor for destructive coordination problems in society, drawing on Allen Ginsberg's poem and various examples to illustrate how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes for all. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses Robin Hanson's vision of a future with emulated humans, debating the preservation of human values and the nature of future societal coordination. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts a conversation with Robin Hanson about the future of humanity, focusing on Hanson's vision of a Malthusian future with emulated humans. They discuss the potential loss of human values like love in such a future, the concept of anti-predictions, and the ability of future societies to coordinate and solve problems. The dialogue touches on the speed of technological change, the preservation of values, and the potential for cultural variation in a post-human world. Scott challenges some of Hanson's views, particularly on the preservation of human values in a hypercompetitive future. Shorter summary