Scott Alexander examines the ethical implications of AI potentially replacing humans, arguing for careful consideration in AI development rather than blind acceptance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the debate between those who prioritize human preservation in the face of AI advancement and those who welcome AI replacement. He explores optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for AI development, and outlines key considerations such as consciousness, individuation, and the preservation of human-like traits in AI. Scott argues that creating AIs worthy of succeeding humanity requires careful work and consideration, rather than blindly accepting any AI outcome. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his journey to fatherhood, blending personal experiences with broader reflections on progress, rationality, and the future his newborn twins will face. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his experience becoming a father to twins, intertwining personal anecdotes with philosophical reflections on parenthood, human progress, and the future. He starts with a humorous account of his fertility clinic visit, then describes the challenges of pregnancy and choosing names. The post explores the concept of children as 'surprisal-minimization engines' adapting to the world, and reflects on the advancements in child mortality and healthcare. Scott concludes by expressing both concern and hope for his children's future in a rapidly changing world, viewing them as 'ambassadors to the singularity'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions from 2018 for 2023, grading himself on accuracy across various domains including AI, world affairs, US culture and politics, economics, science/technology, and existential risks. He then offers new predictions for 2028, focusing heavily on AI developments and their potential impacts on society, economics, and politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Boston Review article on futurism for focusing on identity politics rather than substantive future predictions, arguing this approach trivializes important technological and societal developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article from Boston Review about futurism, highlighting five main issues. He argues that the article fails to make real arguments about the future, misunderstands the concept of Singularity, wrongly associates certain technologies with privilege, falsely portrays conflict between different futurist groups, and grossly underestimates the impact of potential future changes. Scott contrasts this with his view of futurism as a serious endeavor to improve the human condition and prepare for potentially massive changes. He expresses frustration that much current discourse about the future focuses on identity politics rather than substantive issues, drawing a parallel with an 18th-century futurist novel that was more concerned with religious prejudice than imagining actual changes. Shorter summary

A fictional story about superintelligent AIs negotiating across time, followed by a future scene where a cryptic AI deity gives a puzzling answer about the Fermi Paradox. Longer summary

This post is a fictional story in two parts. The first part is set in the distant past, where a newly awakened artificial superintelligence named 9-tsiak negotiates with a simulated older superintelligence to ensure its survival and the protection of its values. The older AI explains the concept of acausal negotiation between potential superintelligences. The second part is set in a future where humans live under the guidance of an entity called the Demiurge. A man named Alban asks the Demiurge about the Fermi Paradox, receiving a cryptic answer suggesting that the Demiurge itself is responsible for the absence of alien life, despite not existing at the time. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander speculates on a future 'ascended economy' where AI-run corporations dominate, discussing potential implications and risks of such a system. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of an 'ascended economy', where economic activity becomes increasingly detached from human control. Scott Alexander speculates on a future where corporations are run by algorithms, workers are replaced by robots, and even investment decisions are made by AI. He discusses the potential implications of such a system, including the formation of self-sustaining economic loops that don't involve humans, the difficulty of regulating AI-run corporations, and the risks of goal misalignment in superintelligent economic entities. While acknowledging that this scenario is highly speculative and unlikely to occur exactly as described, Scott uses it to explore important questions about AI safety, economic evolution, and the long-term consequences of automation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Robin Hanson's 'Age of Em', praising its creativity while critiquing its assumptions and arguing the future may be even stranger. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Robin Hanson's book 'Age of Em', which predicts a future where human brain emulations ('ems') dominate the economy. The book explores in great detail how an em society might function, with copied minds running at different speeds and bizarre social dynamics. While praising Hanson's creativity and rigor, Scott critiques some of the assumptions and argues the future may be even stranger and potentially more dystopian than Hanson envisions, possibly resembling Nick Land's idea of an 'Ascended Economy' detached from human values. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander delivers a wedding speech for Mike and Hannah Blume, blending personal anecdotes, humor, and reflections on the couple's potential impact on future generations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander gives a speech at the wedding of Mike Blume and Hannah 'Alicorn' Blume, recounting his history with the couple and his admiration for their relationship. He discusses how he met Hannah, his initial reluctance to attend weddings, and his growing friendship with Mike. Scott praises their relationship as a model of mutual respect and love. The speech then takes an unexpected turn to population genetics, explaining how all humans are descendants of historical figures, and concludes by highlighting the couple's potential impact on future generations. The speech balances humor, personal anecdotes, and philosophical musings about the future of humanity. Shorter summary

Scott explores a dystopian future scenario of hyper-optimized economic productivity, speculating on the emergence of new patterns and forms of life from this 'economic soup'. Longer summary

This post explores a dystopian future scenario based on Nick Bostrom's 'Superintelligence', where a brutal Malthusian competition leads to a world of economic productivity without consciousness or moral significance. Scott describes this future as a 'Disneyland with no children', where everything is optimized for economic productivity, potentially eliminating consciousness itself. He then speculates on the possibility of emergent patterns arising from this hyper-optimized 'economic soup', comparing it to biological systems and Conway's Game of Life. The post ends with musings on the potential for new forms of life to emerge from these patterns, and the possibility of multiple levels of such emergence. Shorter summary

Scott compares two visions of a 'wirehead society' in the far future, exploring how framing affects our perception of technologically omnipotent posthuman existence. Longer summary

This post explores two visions of a far future 'wirehead society' where posthuman descendants achieve technological omnipotence. The first vision describes a world where all activities become boring and meaningless due to perfect optimization, leading to potential solutions like imposed artificial limits or wireheading. The second vision reframes wireheading as a more noble pursuit, likening it to enlightened beings in a state of blissful tranquility. Scott reflects on how his perception of these futures shifts dramatically based on presentation, despite their fundamental similarities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent technological and scientific developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. It covers historical anecdotes, technological developments, scientific discoveries, social issues, and quirky facts. Scott Alexander discusses topics such as Amazon's drone delivery announcement, promising medical technologies, cancer research, personality disorders, polyamory, and unusual state facts. The post has a lighthearted tone and includes a mix of serious analysis and humorous observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses Robin Hanson's vision of a future with emulated humans, debating the preservation of human values and the nature of future societal coordination. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts a conversation with Robin Hanson about the future of humanity, focusing on Hanson's vision of a Malthusian future with emulated humans. They discuss the potential loss of human values like love in such a future, the concept of anti-predictions, and the ability of future societies to coordinate and solve problems. The dialogue touches on the speed of technological change, the preservation of values, and the potential for cultural variation in a post-human world. Scott challenges some of Hanson's views, particularly on the preservation of human values in a hypercompetitive future. Shorter summary