Scott asks readers to suggest questions for the 2026 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, with prizes for the top ten contributors and AI bots competing this year. Longer summary

Scott announces the upcoming ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest for 2026 and calls for question suggestions from readers. The contest has been running for several years with Metaculus handling most of the organization, and last year attracted over 4500 forecasters predicting on 33 questions. Scott explains that good questions should be objective, verifiable outcomes that will be resolved by year's end, providing examples of well-specified versus poorly-specified questions. The top ten question contributors will receive prizes ranging from $150 to $700, and this year's contest will include AI bots competing alongside humans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 ('Full Mode') of the 2023 Prediction Contest, following the closure of Stage 1 ('Blind Mode'). In this stage, participants are encouraged to use any resources available to make accurate predictions, including personal research, prediction markets, forecasting tournaments, and the 3295 blind mode answers from Stage 1. Scott provides suggestions on how to use these resources and emphasizes that there's no such thing as cheating, except for time travel or harming competitors. He also mentions that the form will ask for a brief description of the strategy used. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces a formalized 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions, multiple modes of play, and cash prizes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2023 Prediction Contest, a formalized version of his annual predictions. The contest includes 50 forecasting questions and 5 demographic questions. Participants can play in Blind Mode (limited research, no external sources) or Full Mode (unlimited research). There are multiple prizes, including $500 for winners in different categories. The contest aims to create a standard for comparing forecasters and forecasting sites, with plans to correlate personality traits with forecasting accuracy in a future ACX Survey. Shorter summary

The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time. Longer summary

This post discusses the results of a prediction contest where participants estimated current American opinions on political issues and how those opinions have changed over 22 years. The author analyzes the accuracy of predictions, noting that participants were generally poor at estimating current opinions but slightly better at predicting changes. The post reveals that participants tended to overestimate how leftist Americans are and how much society has shifted left. The author also mentions that there was little difference in accuracy between reactionary and progressive participants, and names the most accurate predictors. Shorter summary