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prediction contest (4)
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study critique (270)
book review (223)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
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forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
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media criticism (76)
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rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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4 posts
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) community engagement (35) Metaculus (34) ACX blog (15) contest (14) prediction contest (4)

Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest

Scott asks readers to suggest questions for the 2026 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, with prizes for the top ten contributors and AI bots competing this year.

acx
Nov 14, 2025 259 words 49 likes 132 comments Listen · 2 min Read Read Opened Opened
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) data analysis (32) research methodology (28) prediction contest (4) crowdsourcing (4)

Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions.

acx
Jan 10, 2023 291 words 40 likes 84 comments Listen · 3 min Read Read Opened Opened
forecasting (89) Metaculus (34) survey (31) prediction (16) Manifold Markets (12) prediction contest (4) prizes (2)

2023 Prediction Contest

Scott Alexander announces a formalized 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions, multiple modes of play, and cash prizes.

acx
Dec 16, 2022 535 words 89 likes 168 comments Listen · 4 min Read Read Opened Opened
survey analysis (42) prediction (16) polling (8) political bias (8) social trends (6) American politics (4) prediction contest (4) political opinions (3)

The Trend Evaluation Of All Values

The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time.

ssc
Sep 25, 2013 552 words 0 likes 79 comments Read Read Opened Opened
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