Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

A detailed insider look at Phase I clinical drug trials, revealing how the system's structure encourages participants to routinely lie about their medical history and symptoms to continue participating.

A guest post defending the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, explaining why amyloid is likely the root cause despite recent criticism and discussing why early treatments have only been partially effective.

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya.

Scott Alexander examines Zulresso and Zuranolone, two neurosteroid drugs for postpartum depression, discussing their efficacy, challenges, and potential future applications.

Scott Alexander argues that doctors should prescribe fluvoxamine for COVID-19 despite FDA inaction, urging them to overcome discomfort with off-label use when evidence supports it.

Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his previous article about FDA approval of Paxlovid, acknowledging some valid points while maintaining his criticism of the approval process.

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism.

Scott Alexander examines the development and effectiveness of vilazodone and vortioxetine, two antidepressants designed to work faster and better than SSRIs, but which ultimately failed to live up to expectations.

Scott Alexander analyzes the PANDA Study, a large real-world antidepressant trial, discussing its methodology, results, and implications for understanding antidepressant efficacy.

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA approval of esketamine for depression, discussing issues with drug development, efficacy, cost, and administration requirements.

Scott Alexander introduces an 'Anxiety Sampler Kit' for testing various anxiety supplements, aiming to personalize treatment and gather data through self-experimentation.

Scott Alexander examines the rise, fall, and alleged resurrection of the antidepressant NSI-189, expressing skepticism about its efficacy and the broader challenges in developing new antidepressants.

Scott Alexander argues that the 33% rate of post-marketing safety events for FDA-approved drugs is not necessarily concerning and explains why post-marketing surveillance is a normal part of drug safety monitoring.

Scott analyzes various criticisms of antidepressants, concluding they have modest but real benefits over placebo, with important considerations about side effects and efficacy.

A short story about a genie granting a wish for the cure to cancer, with a twist highlighting the practical challenges of drug development and approval.