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Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity.
Scott Alexander examines theories for disease seasonality, proposing a dynamic model where seasonal factors entrain waning immunity cycles.
Scott investigates the claim that cold-related deaths account for 10% of global mortality, exploring various factors and potential impacts of global warming on death rates.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.