A review of 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, discussing its exploration of prion diseases and their impact, with updated perspectives on the book's conclusions. Longer summary

This review discusses 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, a book about prion diseases published in 2006. The review covers the book's exploration of various prion diseases, including fatal familial insomnia, kuru, mad cow disease, and chronic wasting disease. It highlights the book's focus on the historical, scientific, and cultural aspects of these diseases, as well as the key figures involved in prion research. The reviewer also provides updated information and critiques some of the book's conclusions in light of more recent research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his 'Diseasonality' article, exploring various aspects of disease seasonality across different viruses and geographical locations. Longer summary

This post discusses highlights from reader comments on the 'Diseasonality' article. It covers several key points: 1) A paper on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics that explains seasonal patterns of coronaviruses, 2) Insights on how COVID-19 might become a seasonal endemic virus, 3) Discussions on the seasonality of other diseases like chickenpox and flu, 4) Comparisons between disease management and wildfire management, 5) The unique summer seasonality of polio, and 6) A simulation supporting the broad conditions for disease seasonality. The post synthesizes these reader contributions to further explore the concept of disease seasonality introduced in the original article. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the threat of ancient diseases from thawing permafrost, arguing that recent human plagues pose a greater risk than prehistoric ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential threat of ancient diseases reemerging from thawing permafrost due to climate change. He argues that diseases from millions of years ago are unlikely to pose a significant threat to humans, as they would not be adapted to human biology. However, he expresses more concern about recent human plagues like the 1918 Spanish flu or smallpox potentially coming back. Scott explains that while there's no evidence of live smallpox virus found on artifacts or corpses, the possibility of viruses surviving in permafrost can't be ruled out entirely. He concludes that the biggest risk might come from scientists investigating these potential threats rather than natural exposure. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines theories for disease seasonality, proposing a dynamic model where seasonal factors entrain waning immunity cycles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the seasonality of diseases, particularly focusing on flu and COVID-19. He discusses various theories for why diseases peak in winter, including cold temperatures, low humidity, indoor crowding, and vitamin D deficiency. He finds these explanations unsatisfactory and proposes that ultraviolet light might play a role. Scott then considers a dynamic model where disease immunity wanes over time, and seasonal factors entrain this cycle to create annual epidemics. He suggests that COVID-19 is currently in a 'half-seasonal' phase and may become fully seasonal once it has infected most of the population and exhausted easy mutations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander warns about the potential misinterpretation of odds ratios in studies, explaining how to convert them to effect sizes for more accurate understanding. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential for misinterpreting odds ratios in statistical studies, using a personal anecdote from a journal club. He explains how odds ratios can seem more significant than they actually are, and provides a method for converting them to effect sizes for better interpretation. The post includes a reference to Chen's study on interpreting odds ratios in epidemiological studies and gives an example of how a seemingly impressive odds ratio can translate to a more modest effect size. Scott emphasizes the importance of careful comparison between studies that report results using different metrics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes interpretations of a study suggesting psychiatric care might cause suicide, arguing this ignores the more likely explanation of selection bias. Longer summary

Scott critiques a study and subsequent editorial suggesting psychiatric interventions might increase suicide risk. He argues that the correlation between psychiatric treatment and suicide doesn't necessarily imply causation, using analogies like police contact and murder rates to illustrate the flawed reasoning. Scott points out that the original study authors acknowledged this limitation, but subsequent interpretations ignored it. He argues that while psychiatric interventions may have negative effects worth studying, this particular study doesn't provide useful evidence for that claim. The post ends by acknowledging that the relationship between psychiatric care and suicide is complex and deserves careful, high-quality research. Shorter summary