Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts.

Scott Alexander critiques Daron Acemoglu's Washington Post article on AI risks, highlighting flawed logic and unsupported claims about AI's current impacts.

The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners.

Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his technological unemployment article, covering various debates, critiques, and potential explanations for observed trends.

Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs.

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and insights from the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI, covering various aspects of AI development, risks, and ethical considerations.

Scott Alexander critiques three articles on poverty, proposing a framework to categorize poverty approaches, and reluctantly advocates for basic income as the best available solution despite its flaws.

Scott Alexander critiques a plan to cure youth unemployment by abolishing minimum wage, arguing that unemployment might be preferable to miserable employment at extremely low wages.