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election (3)
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study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (896 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (560 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (491 posts)
domain: twitter.com / x.com (445 posts)
domain: nih.gov (333 posts)
domain: reddit.com (321 posts)
domain: amazon.com (276 posts)
domain: substack.com (268 posts)
domain: google.com (235 posts)
domain: nytimes.com (229 posts)
domain: wordpress.com (175 posts)
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domain: vox.com (159 posts)
domain: washingtonpost.com (143 posts)
domain: marginalrevolution.com (140 posts)
domain: sciencedirect.com (131 posts)
domain: theguardian.com (130 posts)
subreddit: slatestarcodex (130 posts)
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Remember which posts I've read on this device
3 posts
Date
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) calibration (23) Polymarket (10) betting (7) election (3) market efficiency (2) Bayes' Theorem (2)

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

acx
Nov 7, 2024 2,993 words 248 likes 647 comments Listen · 18 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Mantic Monday (22) Manifold Markets (12) US elections (10) Polymarket (10) Kalshi (9) CFTC (8) election (3)

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.

acx
Nov 5, 2024 3,744 words 220 likes 469 comments Listen · 26 min Read Read
rationality (76) cognitive bias (59) decision making (28) study (23) priming (6) overcoming bias (5) Ultimatum Game (4) election (3) voting behavior (3) Santa Claus (2)

Never Leave Your Room

Scott surveys research on priming, including studies showing it can sway political judgments and votes, and suggests deciding important matters in a neutral environment.

lw
Mar 18, 2009 1,116 words 84 likes 65 comments Read Read
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