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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (896 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (560 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (491 posts)
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2 posts
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prediction markets (88) AI alignment (39) Metaculus (34) AI capabilities (22) decision-making (16) AI policy (12) AI forecasting (11) Kalshi (9) superforecasting (8) Philip Tetlock (4) FutureSearch (3) Preseen (2) financial markets (2) human vs AI performance (2)

The AI Superforecasters Are Here

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

acx
Jul 2, 2026 5,984 words 583 likes 331 comments Listen · 42 min Read Read
economics (105) forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) statistics (55) Metaculus (34) incentives (6) scoring rules (2) financial markets (2) market design (2)

Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.

acx
Mar 1, 2021 1,745 words 47 likes 149 comments Listen · 13 min Read Read
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