Scott examines the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, which uses crowdsourced forecasting to measure democratic health, discussing its advantages over traditional expert-based indices and its vulnerabilities to manipulation and selection bias. Longer summary

Scott discusses the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, a new approach to measuring American democratic health using crowdsourced forecasting rather than expert opinion. The index aggregates 153 questions about democratic threats (like election cancellations or ballot access) weighted by forecasters' historical accuracy. Scott analyzes its advantages—transparency, resistance to ideological bias, and ability to measure probabilities rather than binary outcomes—alongside its risks, including susceptibility to crowd attacks, bot manipulation, and question selection bias. He finds the recent data somewhat reassuring (showing no expected worsening during Trump's term) and suggests the index will become more valuable over time as question biases become less relevant. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares memorable anecdotes from Masha Gessen's Putin biography, highlighting Russian politics, culture, and Putin's character. Longer summary

This post is a collection of memorable passages from Masha Gessen's book 'The Man Without A Face', a biography of Vladimir Putin. Scott Alexander shares several anecdotes that stood out to him, covering topics such as Soviet-era activism, corruption in Russian politics, Putin's personal life, the Russian national anthem's history, challenges faced by opposition candidates, and Gessen's personal encounter with Putin. The passages provide insight into Russian politics, culture, and Putin's character, often with a touch of irony or absurdity. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of Vladimir Putin, tracing his rise to power and methods of maintaining control in Russia. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise Of Vladimir Putin' by Masha Gessen, detailing Putin's life from childhood to his rise to power in Russia. It covers his KGB career, his unexpected ascent in politics, and his methods of consolidating power, including potential involvement in apartment bombings. The review also discusses Putin's shift towards conservative values and ends with reflections on whether a similar rise to dictatorship could happen in the US. Shorter summary

The post discusses comments on DC's low graduation rates, focusing on strict attendance policies, challenging teaching environments, and systemic issues in the school district. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on DC's low graduation rates, focusing on the strict attendance policy and its effects on students. The main issues discussed are the '80-20' rule, how it disproportionately affects poor and single-parent households, and how it contributes to failing grades. Other comments describe the challenging teaching environment in DC schools, including student misbehavior, lack of administrative support, and systemic corruption. The post also touches on comparisons with other school districts and questions about centralized vs. localized control of education systems. Shorter summary

The post details the Third Eye surveillance system and Priesthood of Truth in the fictional society of Raikoth, exploring how these institutions work to prevent corruption and maintain social order. Longer summary

This post describes two key elements of the fictional society of Raikoth: the Third Eye system and the Priesthood of Truth. Third Eyes are lifelogging cameras that citizens can wear to record their activities, with the data encrypted and only accessible with the wearer's consent. This system helps deter crime and resolve disputes. The Priesthood of Truth consists of highly trained individuals who make important predictions and judgments, from criminal trials to marriage compatibility. They are held to extremely high standards of honesty and accuracy, with severe consequences for dishonesty. Shorter summary