Scott Alexander reviews a debate on AI development pauses, discussing various strategies and their potential impacts on AI safety and progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes a debate on pausing AI development, outlining five main strategies discussed: Simple Pause, Surgical Pause, Regulatory Pause, Total Stop, and No Pause. He explains the arguments for and against each approach, including considerations like compute overhang, international competition, and the potential for regulatory overreach. The post also covers additional perspectives from debate participants and Scott's own thoughts on the feasibility and implications of various pause strategies. Shorter summary

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary

This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various perspectives on self-determination, addressing issues like status quo bias, group rights, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to secession cases. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various comments on his previous post about self-determination. He addresses issues such as the preference for status quo, the nature of group rights, the Confederate secession, international norms, historical investment, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to self-determination cases. Scott generally favors a nuanced approach that respects existing borders by default but allows for secession in cases of oppression or when it can be done peacefully, while acknowledging the difficulties in applying universal rules to such complex situations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict, covering topics such as the state of 'Pax Americana', the importance of international norms, the risks of escalation, and the West's response. He emphasizes the dangers of a no-fly zone, discusses the unexpected resilience of Ukraine and Western unity, and acknowledges criticisms of Western actions. The post ends with various links related to the conflict, including resources for helping Ukrainians and interesting cultural tidbits. Shorter summary