Predictions For 2017 · Read Scott Alexander

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2017.

WORLD EVENTS
1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%
4. …in any First World country: 80%
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
7. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%
8. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 90%
9. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%
10. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%
11. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60%
12. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%
14. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%
15. Libya to remain a mess: 80%
16. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%
17. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%
18. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%
19. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%
20. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90%
21. EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 70%
22. A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80%
23. A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work: 60%
24. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%
25. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60%
26. Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%

EUROPE
27. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%
28. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 95%
29. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
30. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80%
31. The UK triggers Article 50: 90%
32. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%
33. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 60%
34. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80%
35. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 95%

ECONOMICS
36. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%
37. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%
38. …but lower than $60 a barrel: 60%
39. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 50%
40. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 50%

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 90%
42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80%
43. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%
44. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%
45. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60%
46. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%
47. US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 90%
48. US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 95%
49. No race riot killing > 5 people: 95%
50. US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: 70%
51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%
52. …lower than forty percent: 60%

COMMUNITIES
53. SSC will remain active: 95%
54. SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016: 60%
55. At least one SSC post > 100,000 hits: 70%
56. I will complete an LW/SSC survey: 80%
57. I will finish a long FAQ this year: 60%
58. Shireroth will remain active: 70%
59. No co-bloggers (with more than 5 posts) on SSC by the end of this year: 80%
60. Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of this year: 90%
61. > 15,000 Twitter followers by end of this year: 80%
62. I won’t stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook: 90%
63. I will attend the Bay Area Solstice next year: 90%
64. …some other Solstice: 60%
65. …not the New York Solstice: 60%

WORK
66. I will take the job I am currently expecting to take: 90%
67. …at the time I am expecting to take it, without any delays: 80%
68. I will like the job and plan to continue doing it for a while: 70%
69. I will pass my Boards: 90%
70. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017: 50%
71. I will present a research paper at the regional conference: 80%
72. I will attend the APA national meeting in San Diego: 90%
73. None of my outpatients to be hospitalized for psychiatric reasons during the first half of 2017: 50%
74. None of my outpatients to be involuntarily committed to psych hospital by me during the first half of 2017: 70%
75. None of my outpatients to attempt suicide during the first half of 2017: 90%
76. I will not have scored 95th percentile or above when I get this year’s PRITE scores back: 60%

PERSONAL
77. Amazon will not harass me to get the $40,000 they gave me back: 80%
78. …or at least will not be successful: 90%
79. I will drive cross-country in 2017: 70%
80. I will travel outside the US in 2017: 70%
81. …to Europe: 50%
82. I will not officially break up with any of my current girlfriends: 60%
83. K will spend at least three months total in Michigan this year: 70%
84. I will get at least one new girlfriend: 70%
85. I will not get engaged: 90%
86. I will visit the Bay in May 2017: 60%
87. I will have moved to the Bay Area: 99%
88. I won’t live in Godric’s Hollow for at least two weeks continuous: 70%
89. I won’t live in Volterra for at least two weeks continuous: 70%
90. I won’t live in the Bailey for at least two weeks continuous: 95%
91. I won’t live in some other rationalist group home for at least two weeks continuous: 90%
92. I will be living in a house (incl group house) and not apartment building at the end of 2017: 60%
93. I will still not have gotten my elective surgery: 90%
94. I will not have been hospitalized (excluding ER) for any other reason: 95%
95. I will make my savings target at the end of 2017: 60%
96. I will not be taking any nootropic (except ZMA) daily or near-daily during any 2-month period this year: 90%
97. I won’t publicly and drastically change highest-level political/religious/philosophical positions (eg become a Muslim or Republican): 90%
98. I will not get drunk this year: 80%
99. I get at least one article published on a major site like Huffington Post or Vox or New Statesman or something: 50%
100. I attend at least one wedding this year: 50%
101. Still driving my current car at the end of 2017: 90%
102. Car is not stuck in shop for repairs for >1 day during 2017: 60%
103. I will use Lyft at least once in 2017: 60%
104. I weight > 185 pounds at the end of 2017: 60%
105. I weight 195 pounds at the end of 2017: 70%