Scott Alexander introduces the 'North Dakota Constant' to explain why about 33% of people tend to believe in conspiracy theories in surveys, regardless of evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the prevalence of belief in conspiracy theories, introducing the concept of a 'North Dakota Constant' of about 33% - the percentage of people who will believe in a conspiracy theory without any supporting evidence. He compares this to the previously established 'Lizardman Constant' of 4%. The post analyzes survey data on beliefs in various conspiracy theories, including Pizzagate and Obama's birthplace, arguing that the seemingly high percentages of belief might be more reflective of this constant rather than actual widespread acceptance of these theories. Scott suggests that factors like the absence of 'don't know' options in surveys, low-information voters, and pre-existing biases might contribute to these results. He concludes that we should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions from such survey data, especially when the percentage of believers is close to 33%. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the impact of media coverage on fringe beliefs like creationism, suggesting that reduced coverage doesn't necessarily lead to their spread. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the dilemma faced by news organizations in reporting on 'stupid things', using creationism as a case study. He notes that while media coverage of creationism has declined significantly since the 2000s, the percentage of Americans believing in creationism has remained relatively stable. Organizations promoting creationism are still active, but receive far less attention. Scott suggests that this experience with creationism might indicate that aggressive media coverage and extreme measures to combat fringe beliefs (like Pizzagate or QAnon) may be unnecessary or even counterproductive. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning drug policy, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies. It covers a wide range of topics including drug policy changes around suboxone, scientific studies about intelligence and inflammation, historical oddities like Japanese WWII plans, educational research, and current events. The post includes both serious academic content (like studies on behavioral therapy and economic effects of aging) and lighter items (like Pokemon Go at Holocaust museums). Scott provides brief commentary and context for each link, often connecting them to his previous writing or ongoing themes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, examining Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms, while expressing uncertainty about claimed long-term impacts on adult earnings. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, focusing on Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms. He explores studies showing teachers account for about 10% of variance in student test scores, with effects decaying quickly over time. However, some controversial studies claim long-term impacts on adult earnings. Scott examines methodological issues, potential biases, and alternative explanations, ultimately expressing uncertainty about the validity of these long-term effects. He suggests non-cognitive factors like behavior might explain persistent impacts if they exist, but remains skeptical given the contrast with research showing minimal parental influence on outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Warren's 'The Two-Income Trap', which argues increased two-income families have led to more competition for positional goods without improving financial security. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Warren's book 'The Two-Income Trap', which argues that the rise of two-income families has not improved financial security but instead led to increased competition for positional goods like houses in good school districts. The book challenges common narratives about overconsumption and suggests that families are actually spending similar amounts on luxuries as previous generations. Scott finds Warren's analysis insightful but questions some of her conclusions about the importance of school districts. He appreciates her non-partisan approach and willingness to consider market solutions alongside government intervention. Shorter summary

This post systematically rebuts common Reactionary political beliefs on topics like societal decline, traditional governance, progress, and social issues through data analysis and historical examples. Longer summary

This post is an extensive rebuttal to common beliefs held by the Reactionary political movement. It systematically addresses and counters Reactionary claims about societal decline, traditional monarchies, the origins and nature of progress, corporate governance models, and modern views on race and gender. The author analyzes data and historical examples to argue against Reactionary positions, while acknowledging some valid critiques and interesting ideas within the movement. The post ends by listing various rebuttals and responses to the FAQ itself from Reactionary bloggers. Shorter summary