Scott examines reader tests and discussions of AI's GeoGuessr abilities, revealing that AIs perform best with tourist locations and are roughly on par with human professionals. Longer summary

This post discusses the comments and follow-up tests on Scott's previous article about AI's GeoGuessr abilities. Various readers tested Claude/o3's location-guessing capabilities, with mixed results. The key insight was that the AI performs better with tourist destinations that have lots of photos available. Scott addresses suspicions about the Nepal picture from his original post, showing the AI's reasoning was sound. The post also compares AI performance to human GeoGuessr champions like Trevor Rainbolt, and discusses formal AI GeoGuessr benchmarks that show AIs performing similarly to human professionals. The post concludes by considering whether this represents true intelligence or just specialized training, though noting that even OpenAI's leaders seem impressed by the capability. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces an impact market for unfunded ACX Grants proposals, allowing investors to crowdfund projects with potential returns in Manifund dollars. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the implementation of an impact market for ACX Grants proposals that were not initially funded. This market allows investors to crowdfund projects, with the potential to profit if the projects succeed. The post outlines the current state of the market, including challenges faced, and provides examples of available projects. It also explains the technical details of how the impact market works, potential risks and benefits for investors, and provides links for participation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary

The post examines whether unimproved land value can be accurately assessed separately from buildings, a crucial aspect of Georgist land value taxation. Longer summary

This post explores the feasibility of accurately assessing unimproved land value separately from buildings, a key requirement for implementing Georgist land value taxation. It reviews various modern assessment methods, discusses their accuracy and limitations, and concludes that while not perfect, these methods are likely 'good enough' for practical implementation of land value tax policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary