Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary