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effective altruism (100) forecasting (89) prediction markets (87) regulation (16) Manifold Markets (12) CFTC (8) superforecasting (8) COVID-19 origins (6)

Mantic Monday 5/13/24

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future.

acx
May 13, 2024 5,066 words 53 likes 144 comments Listen · 31 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (87) bias (17) decision making (17) regulation (16) superforecasting (8) trust (6) gambling (6) market manipulation (4)

Prediction Market FAQ

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.

acx
Dec 20, 2022 12,964 words 167 likes 317 comments Listen · 77 min Read Read
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