Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes SSC survey results on trust, finding correlations with education, location, and political views, but not with gender, race, or religiosity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of the SSC survey question on trust, exploring how different factors correlate with people's tendency to find others trustworthy. He finds that trust levels don't significantly differ by gender, race, religiosity, or intelligence, but there are differences based on education level, location, and political views. Urban and liberal areas tend to be more trusting, as do more educated individuals. Conservatives are generally less trusting than liberals. Effective altruists and polyamorous Less Wrong readers from California are found to be the most trusting groups. The post also notes correlations with mental health conditions and drug use, and observes that people who chose 'Other' in any category were consistently less trusting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a theory linking autism and schizophrenia to human self-domestication, initially dismissing it before reconsidering its merits in light of Williams Syndrome. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a theory suggesting that autism and schizophrenia are anomalies in human self-domestication. He initially dismisses the theory, pointing out inconsistencies and over-reaching comparisons. However, he then considers Williams Syndrome, which appears to fit the 'hyperdomestication' model better. Scott concludes that while autism and schizophrenia may not be exact opposites of domestication, they likely involve a biological system determining trust and sociability, which is linked to embryological development. He suggests that an embryological approach might be more fruitful in studying these conditions. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes a case of apparent psychiatric misdiagnosis, explaining the complexities and challenges faced by psychiatrists in evaluating patients' claims. Longer summary

Scott discusses a news story about a woman committed to a psych ward for claiming Obama followed her on Twitter, which turned out to be true. He explains that while the hospital's actions seem outrageous, there may be more to the story. He shares his experience as a psychiatrist, detailing the challenges in evaluating patients' claims and the need to err on the side of caution. Scott illustrates this with a story about 'Professor T', a delusional man claiming to be a famous physicist. He emphasizes the difficulty in distinguishing truth from delusion in psychiatric settings, where normal assumptions of trust don't always apply. Shorter summary

Scott examines how friends use verbal teasing or 'slagging' as a form of countersignaling to demonstrate the strength of their friendship. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of countersignaling in friendship, particularly focusing on 'slagging' or teasing between friends. He explains that this verbal cruelty is a form of bonding, demonstrating such strong friendship that even hostile signals won't be misinterpreted. The post includes examples of successful and unsuccessful attempts at this type of interaction, highlighting how it can backfire if the friendship isn't strong enough. Scott also notes that this behavior involves trusting the other person with potentially damaging information, further cementing the bond. Shorter summary