Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Scott responds to various reader comments on his article about having children despite climate change, addressing critiques and expanding on several points. Longer summary

This post highlights and responds to various comments on Scott's previous article about having children despite climate change concerns. It covers topics such as the sincerity of climate concerns, political implications, carbon emissions by location, the severity of climate change impacts, and arguments for and against having children in the current climate context. Scott engages with these comments, offering additional insights, corrections, and reflections on the original arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to reader comments on various topics from his March Links post, providing additional context and clarifications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his March Links post. Topics include privateering, hurricane data reliability, Harvard's budget accounting, Bernie Sanders' campaign, police reform studies, and political psychology research. He highlights expert opinions, clarifies misunderstandings, and adds context to various points raised in the original post. Shorter summary