Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary

Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering technology, science, economics, politics, and culture, including critiques of studies, interesting scientific findings, and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including technology, science, economics, politics, and culture. Some highlights include: a list of places branding themselves as the next Silicon Valley, a study on declining fertility in dogs, critiques of bad scientific studies, an article on antidepressant tapering, data on value drift in effective altruism, and discussions on the Mueller Report's impact on media credibility. The post also includes links to various interesting facts, studies, and developments in fields such as nutrition, drug use, e-cigarettes, and urban development. Shorter summary