Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, evaluating pundits and prediction markets on their accuracy regarding the invasion and Ukrainian resistance. He discusses the performance of Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, and individual forecasters like Edward Luttwak, Anatoly Karlin, Richard Hanania, Dmitri Alperovich, Tyler Cowen, Samo Burja, and others. Scott notes that most failed predictions were based on political precommitments, while successful ones often aligned with biases that happened to match reality. He concludes that having a bias corresponding to the outcome is often more important than being smart when it comes to prediction success. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming cash payments to poor mothers increased infant brain function, highlighting statistical and methodological issues that undermine its positive conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a recent study claiming that cash payments to low-income mothers increased brain function in babies. He points out several issues with the study, including the loss of statistical significance after adjusting for multiple comparisons, potential artifacts in EEG data visualization, and deviations from pre-registered analysis plans. He also discusses the broader context of research on poverty and cognition, noting the difficulty in finding shared environmental effects and the tendency for studies in this field to be flawed or overhyped. Scott concludes that while the study doesn't prove cash grants don't affect children's EEGs, it essentially shows no effect and should not have been reported as an unqualified positive result. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses Infowars readers about a misattributed survey analysis, providing caveats and emphasizing proper attribution and vaccine safety. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses new readers from Infowars, who linked to his blog regarding a survey analysis about mental illness and political affiliation. He clarifies that the analysis was not his own but done by a Twitter user using his survey data. Scott provides several important caveats about the interpretation of these results, including potential biases in diagnosis rates and the unrepresentative nature of his blog's audience. He also points out that a similar finding was reported using the more rigorous General Social Survey. Scott emphasizes the importance of proper attribution in media reporting and reiterates the safety of vaccines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, including links to data, privacy measures, and future analysis plans. Longer summary

This post announces the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, which received 8,043 responses. Scott Alexander provides links to the survey questions and aggregated results, addresses privacy concerns by removing long-answer questions from public view, and offers downloadable datasets for those interested in analyzing the data themselves. He mentions plans for publishing more complex analyses over the coming year. The post also includes the results of a game from the survey, 'Prisoner's Dilemma Against Your Clone', and instructions for the winner to claim their prize. Shorter summary