Scott Alexander discusses the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding, exploring various options and challenges. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding. He discusses various options for structuring the market, pricing certificates, handling founder equity, and addressing legal and ethical concerns. The post examines different approaches to kickstarting such a market, considers potential investors and funders, and concludes with some hybrid design proposals to balance competing interests. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary