Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the psychopharmacology aspects of the FTX crash, focusing on the medications Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and other FTX employees may have been taking. He examines claims about SBF's use of Emsam (selegiline), modafinil, and other stimulants, explaining their effects and potential risks. Scott also critiques the actions of FTX's company psychiatrist and discusses the broader implications of stimulant use in high-pressure work environments. The post ends with Scott's personal anecdote about testifying as an expert witness. Shorter summary