Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms. Longer summary

This post discusses recent changes in Ukraine-related prediction markets, analyzes the seemingly monotonic decrease in probabilities of Russian success, explores nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares the performance of forecasters vs. domain experts. Scott also covers various short updates on prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict, covering topics such as the state of 'Pax Americana', the importance of international norms, the risks of escalation, and the West's response. He emphasizes the dangers of a no-fly zone, discusses the unexpected resilience of Ukraine and Western unity, and acknowledges criticisms of Western actions. The post ends with various links related to the conflict, including resources for helping Ukrainians and interesting cultural tidbits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, evaluating pundits and prediction markets on their accuracy regarding the invasion and Ukrainian resistance. He discusses the performance of Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, and individual forecasters like Edward Luttwak, Anatoly Karlin, Richard Hanania, Dmitri Alperovich, Tyler Cowen, Samo Burja, and others. Scott notes that most failed predictions were based on political precommitments, while successful ones often aligned with biases that happened to match reality. He concludes that having a bias corresponding to the outcome is often more important than being smart when it comes to prediction success. Shorter summary