Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

A detailed insider look at Phase I clinical drug trials, revealing how the system's structure encourages participants to routinely lie about their medical history and symptoms to continue participating.

A guest post defending the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, explaining why amyloid is likely the root cause despite recent criticism and discussing why early treatments have only been partially effective.

Scott analyzes the implications of the FDA ending compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs, which have provided a cheaper alternative to official channels for the past three years, and examines various responses from both compounding pharmacies and pharmaceutical companies.

Scott Alexander examines how compounding pharmacies are producing cheaper versions of GLP-1 agonist drugs, exploring the economics, safety, and future implications of this practice.

Scott Alexander examines the complexities of abolishing the FDA and proposes more practical alternatives to increase medical innovation while maintaining safeguards.

The post challenges the notion that effect sizes below 0.50 for medications are clinically insignificant, using antidepressants as a case study and comparing them to other common drugs.

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism.

Scott Alexander examines the development and effectiveness of vilazodone and vortioxetine, two antidepressants designed to work faster and better than SSRIs, but which ultimately failed to live up to expectations.

Scott Alexander argues that pseudoaddiction is a real and important concept, despite being widely denounced as pharma propaganda in the context of the opioid crisis.

Scott Alexander humorously describes his observations at the American Psychiatric Association meeting, highlighting pharmaceutical influence, social justice focus, and historical context of psychiatry.

Scott Alexander analyzes how FDA regulations contribute to drug shortages and high prices, using buspirone and insulin as examples.

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA approval of esketamine for depression, discussing issues with drug development, efficacy, cost, and administration requirements.

Scott Alexander examines and expresses skepticism about a theory that attributes high-dose melatonin supplements to patent avoidance, while reflecting on the challenges of evaluating such claims.

Scott Alexander critically examines a major meta-analysis on antidepressant efficacy, noting potential biases and comparing its surprising drug rankings to his own previous analysis.

Scott Alexander examines the rise, fall, and alleged resurrection of the antidepressant NSI-189, expressing skepticism about its efficacy and the broader challenges in developing new antidepressants.

Scott Alexander criticizes branded combination nootropics, explaining why they are often ineffective or harmful, and advises careful individual experimentation with single substances instead.

Scott Alexander explores why recreational drugs like ketamine and MDMA have shown more promise in treating mental health conditions than intentionally developed pharmaceuticals, suggesting a new direction for drug research.

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms.

Scott argues against Vox's proposal for drug price controls, citing studies that such policies would significantly reduce pharmaceutical innovation and potentially cost millions of life-years long-term.

The post examines three major issues with generic medications: barriers to market entry, problematic FDA initiatives, and inconsistent pricing across pharmacies.

Scott Alexander explores the nuanced ways pharmaceutical companies influence doctors, arguing that their tactics are more subtle and ethically complex than simple bribery.

Scott Alexander examines overpriced medical products like Lovaza and Deplin, arguing they serve a purpose in the medical system, but criticizes exorbitant BRCA gene testing prices as harmful.

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional drugs banned by the FDA, each with an absurd reason for its prohibition.

Scott Alexander critiques the medical system's preference for expensive prescription sleep aids like Ramelteon over cheaper alternatives like melatonin, while sharing interesting facts about melatonin's uses.