Scott Alexander shares insights gained from writing a comprehensive post on lockdown effectiveness, highlighting the complexities and challenges of analyzing such a multifaceted issue. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on writing a comprehensive post about lockdown effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic. He discusses the challenges of addressing such a complex, multi-dimensional issue, including the difficulty of comparing different types of costs, the limitations of mathematical models, and the potential for bias in academic research. Scott also notes the varying pandemic experiences across different countries and regions, and the surprising involvement of rationalists and effective altruists in lockdown studies. He emphasizes the importance of considering alternative approaches beyond the typical pro/anti-lockdown debate, and the value of cross-disciplinary research in addressing complex issues. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy. Longer summary

This post is a creative writing piece in the form of verses set to the tune of a song from Les Misérables. It humorously depicts the experience of getting the COVID-19 vaccine and the conflicting desires between citizens wanting freedom and epidemiologists urging continued caution. The verses highlight various frustrations with lockdowns, and end with the narrator receiving the vaccine but still being advised to follow restrictions. The piece concludes with the narrator expressing a sense of freedom and resentment towards the FDA for delays in vaccine approval. Shorter summary