The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary

This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, providing humorous and insightful commentary on each candidate's background, policies, and campaign style. He covers a wide range of candidates, from established politicians to small business owners, immigrants, and even a former poet laureate. The post highlights the diversity of candidates and their often unconventional approaches to addressing California's issues, particularly homelessness. Scott concludes by expressing admiration for the candidates' spirit of optimism and civic engagement, seeing them as a positive sign for American democracy despite their slim chances of winning. Shorter summary

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy. Longer summary

This post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries: United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Lebanon. The authors review each country's history, constitution, democratic institutions, and human rights record to assess the extent to which liberal democracy has taken hold. They find a wide spectrum, from Tunisia's robust democracy to Iran's theocratic regime, with the other countries falling in between. The authors conclude that while it's possible for Muslim countries to adopt liberal democracy, Islam often acts as an obstacle, and most Muslim countries have only taken small steps in that direction so far. Shorter summary