A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

Scott investigates AI psychosis through historical analogies and a reader survey, finding it affects roughly 1 in 10,000 to 100,000 people yearly, with most cases involving pre-existing risk factors. Longer summary

Scott examines the phenomenon of AI psychosis, where people allegedly go crazy after extensive chatbot interactions. He explores various analogies and precedents, including the 1990s Russian TV hoax about Lenin being a mushroom, social media-induced conspiracy theories like QAnon, and the concept of folie à deux. Through a survey of his blog readers, he estimates the yearly incidence of AI psychosis at 1/10,000 (loose definition) to 1/100,000 (strict definition). The analysis suggests that most cases involve people who were already psychotic or had risk factors, with only about 10% being cases of previously healthy people developing full psychosis. Shorter summary

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the 'canalization' theory in computational psychiatry and its refinement through deep learning concepts in the Deep CANAL model. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a new paradigm in computational psychiatry called 'canalization', which models mental processes as an energy landscape with valleys representing attractors or persistent beliefs/behaviors. He then explores a follow-up paper that applies concepts from deep learning to refine this theory, introducing the Deep CANAL model. This model attempts to explain various mental disorders by mapping them onto different types of computational issues in artificial neural networks, such as overfitting/underfitting and the stability/plasticity dilemma. Scott expresses both interest and skepticism about this approach, noting its potential insights but also its limitations and potential contradictions with other theories. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for generally believing reports of unusual mental experiences, countering skepticism about unfalsifiable internal states. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Resident Contrarian's skepticism about unfalsifiable internal states like jhana meditation experiences. He argues that we should generally believe people's reports of unusual mental experiences, based on examples like visual imagination, synaesthesia, and phantom limb pain. Scott critiques RC's arguments about 'spoonies' and dissociative identity disorder, providing a more nuanced view of these conditions. He emphasizes the importance of considering evidence and priors rather than relying solely on intuition about whether people are lying. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed guide on understanding, preventing, and treating nightmares, covering causes, lifestyle changes, therapies, and medications. Longer summary

This post provides a comprehensive guide to understanding and treating nightmares. It covers the potential causes of nightmares, lifestyle changes that can help reduce them, and various therapies and medications that can be effective. The author discusses the role of stress, sleep quality, and medical conditions in nightmare occurrence. The post also details specific therapeutic approaches like Image Rehearsal Therapy, Systematic Desensitization, and Lucid Dreaming Therapy, as well as the use of prazosin as a medication for nightmares. The author concludes by recommending resources for further information. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that doctors should prescribe fluvoxamine for COVID-19 despite FDA inaction, urging them to overcome discomfort with off-label use when evidence supports it. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the use of fluvoxamine (Luvox) as a potential treatment for COVID-19. He argues that despite strong evidence from clinical trials showing its effectiveness, many doctors are hesitant to prescribe it due to it being off-label use. The FDA has not added COVID-19 to the drug's label, citing bureaucratic issues. Scott criticizes this inaction and suggests that doctors should be willing to prescribe off-label when evidence supports it, even if it feels uncomfortable. He relates personal experiences of hesitating to prescribe off-label medications due to social pressure and encourages doctors to critically examine their reasons for not prescribing fluvoxamine for COVID-19. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive guide on ketamine as a depression treatment, covering administration methods, effectiveness, safety, dosage, and potential side effects. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive guide on ketamine as a treatment for depression, covering various aspects such as methods of administration, effectiveness, safety, dosage, and potential side effects. Scott Alexander explains the differences between IV ketamine, esketamine (Spravato), and oral/intranasal ketamine, discussing their relative costs and accessibility. He also delves into ketamine-assisted psychotherapy, the duration of ketamine's effects, and current theories on how it works. The post is written in a FAQ format, aiming to provide thorough and evidence-based information while acknowledging areas of uncertainty in the research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a detailed guide on depression, covering its causes, symptoms, and various treatment options, including lifestyle changes, therapies, medications, and other interventions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive guide on depression, covering its causes, symptoms, and various treatment options. He discusses lifestyle changes, therapies, medications, supplements, and other interventions like TMS and ECT. The post offers practical advice on how to approach treatment, including specific regimens for different situations, and guidelines on how long to continue treatment once it starts working. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents results from his 2020 nootropics survey, covering effectiveness ratings, tolerance, and user experiences with various substances. Longer summary

This post presents the results of Scott Alexander's 2020 nootropics survey, where 852 respondents rated various substances on effectiveness. The survey covered a range of nootropics, from common stimulants to newer experimental substances. Key findings include the high rating of Zembrin (a kanna extract), insights on modafinil usage, and user experiences with caffeine alternatives. The post also discusses tolerance development, overall opinions on nootropics, and vendor recommendations. Scott notes that most respondents were from his blog community rather than the broader nootropics community, which he found disappointing. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the optimal dosage of Lexapro, comparing it to other antidepressants and exploring the reasons behind its effectiveness at lower doses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of the right dose for Lexapro (escitalopram), an antidepressant. He examines official recommendations, compares Lexapro to other SSRIs, and investigates why Lexapro might be effective at lower doses. The post delves into studies on antidepressant dosing, the unique properties of Lexapro, and the potential benefits and risks of higher doses. Scott concludes that while there's no strong evidence for high doses of any antidepressant being more effective, prescribing higher doses of Lexapro might be as safe as other SSRIs and potentially more beneficial in some cases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines taxometrics in psychiatry, finding that most mental health conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, and discusses the implications for diagnosis and treatment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of taxometrics, which studies whether psychiatric conditions are categorical or dimensional. He explains the difference between categorical distinctions (like humans vs. rabbits) and dimensional variations (like height), and discusses how taxometric methods attempt to determine which psychiatric conditions fall into each category. The post then reviews recent meta-analyses suggesting that most psychiatric conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, contrary to some expectations. Scott reflects on the implications of this for psychiatric diagnosis and treatment, suggesting a move away from binary thinking about mental health conditions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the history, chemistry, and efficacy of various amphetamine-based ADHD medications, comparing their strengths and weaknesses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the history and differences between various amphetamine-based ADHD medications. He traces the origins of Adderall to a 1950s diet pill, then compares it to other drugs like Dexedrine, Vyvanse, Evekeo, and Desoxyn (methamphetamine). The post discusses the chemical differences, patient preferences, and effectiveness of these medications, noting that pure d-amphetamine (Dexedrine) seems generally superior to the Adderall mixture. Scott also touches on the controversy surrounding methamphetamine use in ADHD treatment, explaining that the main differences between therapeutic use and abuse are dosage and administration method rather than inherent properties of the drug. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander describes deleting his blog Slate Star Codex due to a doxxing threat, the aftermath, and his decision to return to blogging under his real name. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience of deleting his popular blog Slate Star Codex after the New York Times threatened to reveal his real name. He discusses the reasons behind his decision, the unexpected consequences, and the outpouring of support he received. Scott reflects on the importance of online anonymity and explains his decision to restart his blog under his real name, as well as his plans for the future. Shorter summary