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3 posts

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prediction markets (87) AI alignment (37) Metaculus (34) AI capabilities (22) decision-making (15) AI policy (12) AI forecasting (11) Kalshi (9) superforecasting (8) Philip Tetlock (3) FutureSearch (3) Preseen (2) financial markets (2) human vs AI performance (2)

The AI Superforecasters Are Here

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

acx

Jul 2, 2026 5,984 words 583 likes 331 comments Listen · 42 min Read Read

effective altruism (100) scientific research (64) charitable giving (26) animal welfare (21) ACX Grants (16) grant-making (10) lobbying (9) startup funding (4)

ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates

Scott reviews updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients (from 2021 and 2024), analyzing their progress and sharing lessons learned about what makes grants successful.

acx

Jun 18, 2025 12,838 words 124 likes 169 comments Listen · 75 min Read Read

effective altruism (100) forecasting (89) prediction markets (87) regulation (16) Manifold Markets (12) CFTC (8) superforecasting (8) COVID-19 origins (6)

Mantic Monday 5/13/24

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future.

acx

May 13, 2024 5,066 words 53 likes 144 comments Listen · 31 min Read Read

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