Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets. Scott reviews a YouTube explainer on prediction markets, introduces a new market called Futuur, discusses the innovative approach of Mantic Markets, highlights Metaculus' Public Figure Predictions feature, and provides updates on current market predictions for various events. He also shares some short notes on foot voting coordination efforts, a suggestion for using prediction markets in college debates, and Google's new prediction market team. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from science and technology to politics and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various interesting links and news items from July. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific studies, politics, technology, economics, and culture. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on each item, often with a mix of humor and insightful observations. Some notable topics include a study on using Botox for depression, British attitudes towards lockdowns, advances in polygenic embryo selection, and discussions on economic divergence between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The post also includes several quirky or amusing items, such as Chinese propaganda, a topologist's map of the world, and an anecdote about a unique interpretation of the Bible. Shorter summary