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study critique (270)
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Remember which posts I've read on this device
4 posts
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Comments
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Mantic Monday (22) Manifold Markets (12) Kalshi (9) CFTC (8) PredictIt (5) nuclear risk (4) 2022 US midterms (3) Samotsvety Forecasting (2)

Mantic Monday 10/17/22

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

acx
Oct 18, 2022 3,862 words 59 likes 132 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) current events (28) Mantic Monday (22) AI progress (15) Elon Musk (12) nuclear risk (4) Ukraine-Russia war (4)

Mantic Monday 4/18/22

Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.

acx
Apr 18, 2022 2,264 words 45 likes 458 comments Listen · 21 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) Mantic Monday (22) Polymarket (10) superforecasters (6) Ukraine war (4) nuclear risk (4)

Mantic Monday 3/14/22

Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.

acx
Mar 14, 2022 2,456 words 54 likes 198 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read
geopolitics (6) Ukraine war (4) international relations (4) nuclear risk (4) sanctions (2) NATO (2)

Ukraine Thoughts And Links

Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources.

acx
Mar 8, 2022 4,611 words 70 likes 991 comments Listen · 34 min Read Read
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