Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits.

Scott Alexander analyzes EA's approach to criticism, arguing that specific, targeted critiques are more valuable than vague, paradigmatic ones for driving real change.

Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique.

Scott Alexander presents highlights from reader comments on his review of Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions', offering various perspectives and clarifications on Kuhn's ideas about scientific progress.

Scott Alexander presents a 'Grand Unified Chart' showing how different domains of knowledge share a similar structure in interpreting the world, arguing this is due to basic brain algorithms and effective epistemology.

Scott reviews Kuhn's 'Structure of Scientific Revolutions', finding its thesis on paradigm shifts in science intriguing but frustratingly vague, especially beyond physics.

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought.

Scott explores the nature of scientific contrarianism, discussing how ideas spread through the scientific community and the challenges faced by both crackpots and legitimate contrarians.