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prediction accuracy (4)
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4 posts
Date
Length
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Comments
forecasting (91) Eliezer Yudkowsky (46) AI development (23) AI timelines (7) prediction accuracy (4) compute requirements (4) scaling laws (3) Ajeya Cotra (2) Tom Davidson (2)

What Happened With Bio Anchors?

Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.

acx
Feb 12, 2026 4,045 words 182 likes 269 comments Listen · 25 min Read Read Opened Opened
economics (105) politics (89) scientific research (64) AI development (23) futurism (12) prediction accuracy (4)

Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments.

acx
Feb 20, 2023 7,468 words 144 likes 426 comments Listen · 48 min Read Read Opened Opened
prediction markets (89) politics (89) bias (20) Republican Party (8) Trump presidency (6) prediction accuracy (4) race relations (3) QAnon (2)

Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures.

acx
Apr 19, 2021 9,658 words 97 likes 930 comments Listen · 60 min Read Read Opened Opened
rationality (76) Eliezer Yudkowsky (46) IQ (37) decision making (28) calibration (23) prediction accuracy (4) Good Judgment Project (3)

The General Factor Of Correctness

Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields.

ssc
Jul 23, 2015 2,739 words 0 likes 391 comments Read Read Opened Opened
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