Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links covering AI, economics, politics, science, and culture, offering brief comments and insights on each topic. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various news articles, studies, and interesting tidbits. It covers a wide range of topics including AI, economics, politics, science, and culture. Some notable items include: a new AI that draws pictures based on captions, a study on the effectiveness of ballpoint pens for emergency tracheotomies, the cancellation of a basic income experiment, weaknesses in Xi Jinping's rule, and a study showing Hitler's speeches didn't measurably increase Nazi support. The post also touches on topics like climate change, antimalarial bed nets, polygenic scores for disease risk, and a replication of a famous psychology study on smiling and happiness. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief comments or insights on many of the links. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and political developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentary on diverse topics. It covers historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The post touches on subjects like vegetarian activism, Supreme Court changes, AI alignment, and Silicon Valley culture. Scott Alexander provides concise summaries and occasional personal opinions on these wide-ranging topics, often with a touch of humor or irony. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander drafts a letter to the FDA arguing against their decision to halt 23andMe's genetic testing services, highlighting the benefits and addressing the FDA's concerns. Longer summary

Scott Alexander writes a letter to the FDA expressing concern about their decision to halt 23andMe's genetic testing services. He argues that personal genomics services like 23andMe provide valuable and affordable genetic information to patients and doctors, raise awareness about genetics, and contribute to genetic research. Scott counters the FDA's concerns about false positives, test validation, and patient self-management, suggesting that these issues are either manageable or apply to many other medical tests and information sources. He urges the FDA to work with 23andMe to ensure their service returns to the market quickly. Shorter summary