Scott introduces an irregular classifieds thread for readers to advertise in various categories, providing guidelines and related resources. Longer summary

This post introduces an irregular classifieds thread where readers can advertise various things in the comments. Scott provides guidelines for organizing responses into categories like Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, or Other. He emphasizes being respectful, especially regarding dating ads, and provides links to related resources such as job boards and dating directories. Shorter summary

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes various project ideas for ACX Grants, ranging from scientific research to social initiatives, and encourages readers to pursue them. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes several project ideas for the upcoming ACX Grants round. These range from replicating brain entrainment learning results to creating an open-source polygenic score for educational attainment. Other suggestions include campaigns similar to John Green's anti-tuberculosis effort, a novel approach to language teaching, an automatic Implicit Association Test generator, a new dating site concept, a foundation to promote classical art and architecture, and a primer on political change. Scott encourages readers to take on these projects, offering potential publicity and connections to funders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent Manifest conference for prediction market enthusiasts, highlighting key issues such as regulatory challenges, potential applications in hiring, and the use of prediction markets in journalism. He also covers the launch of Manifold.love, a prediction market-based dating site, and analyzes recent prediction market activity on topics like the Gaza hospital explosion and various political events. The post concludes with updates on prediction market developments and related initiatives. Shorter summary