Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence, discussing genetic and environmental factors, and proposing explanatory models for the observed lower IQ in autistic individuals despite genetic links to higher intelligence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence. While genetic studies show a link between autism risk genes and high IQ, autistic individuals generally have lower intelligence than neurotypical controls. The post discusses three main causes of autism: common 'familial' genes that increase IQ, rare 'de novo' mutations that are often detrimental, and non-genetic factors like obstetric complications. Scott examines various studies and proposes that even after adjusting for mutations and environmental factors, autism still seems to decrease IQ. He introduces a 'tower-vs-foundation' model to explain this phenomenon, where intelligence needs a strong foundation to support it, and an imbalance can lead to autism. The post concludes with a list of findings and their associated confidence levels. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander draws parallels between OpenAI's GPT-2 language model and human dreaming, exploring their similarities in process and output quality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander compares OpenAI's GPT-2 language model to human dreaming, noting similarities in their processes and outputs. He explains how GPT-2 works by predicting next words in a sequence, much like the human brain predicts sensory input. The post explores why both GPT-2 and dreams produce narratives that are coherent in broad strokes but often nonsensical in details. Scott discusses theories from neuroscience and machine learning to explain this phenomenon, including ideas about model complexity reduction during sleep and comparisons to AI algorithms like the wake-sleep algorithm. He concludes by suggesting that dream-like outputs might simply be what imperfect prediction machines produce, noting that current AI capabilities might be comparable to a human brain operating at very low capacity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary