Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his review of 'What We Owe The Future', addressing debates around population ethics, longtermism, and moral philosophy. Longer summary

This post highlights key comments on Scott Alexander's review of William MacAskill's book 'What We Owe The Future'. It covers various reactions and debates around topics like the repugnant conclusion in population ethics, longtermism, moral philosophy, AI risk, and the nature of happiness and suffering. Scott responds to several comments, clarifying his views on philosophy, moral reasoning, and the challenges of population ethics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and challenges in running a microgrants program, offering insights and advice for others considering similar initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience running a microgrants program, detailing the challenges and complexities involved. He discusses the difficulty of evaluating grant proposals, relying on expert advisors, dealing with applicants' poor grant-writing skills, and navigating the moral dilemmas of effective altruism. Scott concludes by questioning whether running such a program is worthwhile for most people, suggesting alternatives like donating to established charities, and proposing a new impact certificate-based system for future grant-making. Shorter summary

Scott examines studies linking sleeping pills to increased mortality, highlighting a new study that found no link after adjusting for 300 confounders, potentially challenging the validity of less thorough studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a controversial topic in medical research: the link between sleeping pills and increased mortality. He reviews several studies that found a strong association between sleeping pill use and higher death rates from various causes, even after controlling for confounders. However, he then introduces a new study by Patorno et al. that found no such link for benzodiazepines. The key difference is that this study adjusted for an unprecedented 300 confounders using a new statistical algorithm. Scott suggests that if this study is correct, it could mean that many other medical studies that only control for a handful of confounders might be inadequate. He draws parallels to other fields where dramatically increasing scale or intensity has led to new insights. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends Bayesianism as a valuable epistemology, contrasting it with absolutist and nihilistic approaches, and argues for its usefulness in complex reasoning. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to David Chapman's criticism of 'Bayesianism' as a philosophy. He argues that Bayesianism is a genuine and valuable epistemology, contrasting it with two other approaches: Aristotelianism (which deals in absolutes) and Anton-Wilsonism (which advocates not believing anything). Scott posits that Bayesianism, or 'Epistemology X', is a synthesis of these, allowing for degrees of belief and updating based on evidence. He defends this view by sharing personal experiences and observations, arguing that while people may not always think in probabilities, having a coherent philosophical foundation like Bayesianism is valuable when dealing with complex issues outside one's comfort zone. Shorter summary