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study critique (272)
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effective altruism (105) prediction markets (89) Mantic Monday (22) Elon Musk (12) Manifold Markets (12) Twitter (7) market manipulation (4) FTX scandal (3) 2022 US midterms (3) Sam Bankman-Fried (2)

Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'.

acx
Nov 21, 2022 4,483 words 68 likes 257 comments Listen · 29 min Read Read Opened Opened
voting (13) California politics (11) abortion (11) gambling (7) local elections (5) ballot measures (4) 2022 US midterms (3)

My California Ballot 2022

Scott Alexander reviews and explains his votes on California's 2022 ballot propositions and candidates, providing analysis and commentary on each item.

acx
Nov 4, 2022 4,502 words 125 likes 542 comments Listen · 29 min Read Read Opened Opened
forecasting (91) prediction markets (89) Mantic Monday (22) Manifold Markets (12) Kalshi (9) CFTC (8) PredictIt (5) nuclear risk (4) 2022 US midterms (3) Samotsvety Forecasting (2)

Mantic Monday 10/17/22

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

acx
Oct 18, 2022 3,862 words 59 likes 132 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read Opened Opened
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