Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics. Longer summary

Scott argues that American political discourse sometimes absorbs European issues that don't apply to the US context. He gives two main examples: the narrative about generational wealth transfer through pensions (which happens in Europe but not America), and conservative talking points about immigrants being criminals and welfare recipients (largely true in parts of Europe, largely false in America). He provides detailed statistics showing that most US immigrant groups, including asylum seekers, have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, contrasting this with higher rates in countries like Germany. Scott suggests both liberals and conservatives avoid acknowledging this difference because it's politically inconvenient, but argues liberals should directly challenge conservatives to focus on American rather than European data. Shorter summary

Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, addressing criticisms about the post's timing and tone, defending his characterization of Adams' interest in manipulation, discussing the reach of Adams' podcast, and (reluctantly) clarifying his position on Adams' controversial race-related comments. The post includes updates acknowledging that Adams' podcast was more influential than initially stated and that his manipulation techniques coexisted with genuine helpfulness to many people. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander eulogizes Scott Adams (Dilbert creator), analyzing his life as a tension between being a brilliant humorist and desperately wanting to be seen as more, leading through failed business ventures and self-help philosophies to eventual cancellation and death. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the life and career of Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert), who died of prostate cancer at 68. The post traces Adams' journey from brilliant comic artist to failed businessman, religious philosopher, self-help guru, and ultimately Trump supporter, exploring how his lifelong tension between being genuinely clever and his inability to succeed outside of cartooning drove increasingly desperate attempts to prove himself. Alexander portrays Adams as someone who achieved world-class success in humor but couldn't accept that limitation, leading him through various failed ventures (restaurants, burritos, technology startups) and eventually into right-wing politics and cancellation. Despite the criticism, Alexander acknowledges Adams as a personal influence and teacher, ending with genuine tribute to someone who helped many people even while struggling with his own contradictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election shouldn't dramatically change our understanding of politics and society. He criticizes both extreme predictions of a certain Hillary Clinton victory and a certain Donald Trump victory, pointing out that the race is close enough that the outcome could be determined by random factors like weather. Alexander suggests that people should precommit to their views on politics and society rather than drastically changing them based on the election result. He uses his own January 2016 prediction of Trump having a 20% chance of winning (conditional on winning the Republican primary) as an example of a reasonable prediction, given that prediction markets on election eve give Trump an 17.9% chance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2015, assessing their accuracy. He lists 35 predictions across world events and personal life, marking successful ones and crossing out failed ones. He then scores them based on confidence levels, presenting the results in a graph. Overall, Scott considers it a successful year for his predictions, with good calibration except at the 50% confidence level. He also comments on Scott Adams' reported prediction success for 2015, suggesting ways to verify the authenticity of such claims and expressing interest in seeing Adams make concrete predictions for 2016. Shorter summary