A review of 'Safe Enough?' by Thomas Wellock, exploring the history and limitations of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in nuclear safety. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Safe Enough? A History of Nuclear Power and Accident Risk' by Thomas Wellock, which chronicles the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in nuclear safety. The review discusses how PRA became the dominant method for analyzing nuclear risk, its successes in reducing accidents, and its limitations in predicting extreme events like Fukushima. The author argues that while PRA greatly improved nuclear safety, it cannot fully account for rare but catastrophic 'dragon king' events, leaving the question of whether nuclear power is 'safe enough' ultimately unanswered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions. Shorter summary

A review of 'Where's My Flying Car?' by J. Storrs Hall, exploring the causes of technological stagnation and the potential for future progress in flying cars, nuclear energy, and nanotechnology. Longer summary

This book review discusses J. Storrs Hall's 'Where's My Flying Car?', which explores the causes of the Great Stagnation since the 1970s. Hall argues that the stagnation was caused by flatlining energy usage, stemming from a failure to adopt nuclear energy due to excessive regulation driven by 'green fundamentalism'. The review covers Hall's analysis of flying cars, nuclear power, and nanotechnology, detailing how regulation and public funding have hindered progress in these areas. It also touches on Hall's critique of government-funded science and his vision for future technological advancements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary