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Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy.
A study on expert prediction of behavioral economics experiments finds that experts have only a slight advantage over non-experts, suggesting that a separate 'rationality' skill may be more important than specific expertise.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.