A review of 'Nine Lives', a memoir by ex-jihadist turned spy Aimen Dean, offering insights into al-Qaeda's operations and the challenges of counterterrorism. Longer summary

This review discusses Aimen Dean's memoir 'Nine Lives', which details his experiences as a jihadist turned British spy infiltrating al-Qaeda. The review highlights key insights from the book, including the motivations behind jihadism, the role of religious prophecies in terrorist strategies, the challenges of intelligence work, and Dean's perspective on countering radicalization. It also touches on the book's implications for understanding terrorist organizations, their tactics, and the complexities of counterterrorism efforts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that fundamental value differences are less common and less aligned with political tribes than often assumed, emphasizing the need for coexistence despite varying values. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges the idea that fundamental value differences are a significant barrier to cooperation. He argues that many apparent value differences are actually factual disagreements or inconsistently applied principles. Using examples like foreign aid and immigration, he shows how people's values often shift based on context and convenience. Alexander suggests that while some fundamental value differences may exist, they don't necessarily align with political or cultural tribes. He concludes that since everyone has some value differences with everyone else, learning to coexist despite these differences is crucial. Shorter summary

The post criticizes the gendered framing of sexual harassment, presenting statistics on male victims and female perpetrators, and argues for a more balanced approach to the issue. Longer summary

This post critiques the gendered nature of sexual harassment discourse, arguing that it ignores male victims and female perpetrators. The author presents statistics showing that about 30% of sexual harassment victims are men and 20% of perpetrators are women. He argues that the media and society have framed sexual harassment as a exclusively male-on-female issue, silencing male victims and ignoring female perpetrators. The post suggests that this framing is deliberate and counterproductive, preventing a full understanding of the issue and making it harder for all victims to get justice. The author advocates for treating sexual harassment more like terrorism - as a universal problem that can be perpetrated by anyone, regardless of gender. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques the argument that terrorism is less concerning than mundane accidents, showing how excluding 'outlier' events can dangerously skew risk assessments for threats like terrorism and pandemics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the common argument that terrorism shouldn't be a major concern because it kills fewer people than mundane accidents like falling furniture. He points out that this reasoning is flawed because it often arbitrarily excludes major events like 9/11 as 'outliers'. Using examples like earthquakes in Haiti and the 1918 flu pandemic, he demonstrates how excluding extreme events can drastically skew risk assessments. He argues that for some threats, including terrorism, pandemics, and existential risks, these 'outlier' events are actually the most important consideration. The post concludes by expressing concern that this flawed reasoning might be applied after a future catastrophic terrorist attack, undermining the importance of prevention efforts. Shorter summary