A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary

The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his previous article about FDA approval of Paxlovid, acknowledging some valid points while maintaining his criticism of the approval process. Longer summary

This post summarizes comments on Scott's previous article about FDA approval of Paxlovid. It covers manufacturing challenges, FDA approval processes, production capacity, ongoing studies, and ethical considerations. Scott acknowledges some valid points raised by commenters about reasons for FDA delays, but maintains his criticism of the approval process, suggesting a need for different levels of approval and questioning the current drug approval system. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education, presenting evidence and critiquing contrary studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school due to COVID-19 or other reasons is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education. He presents evidence from various studies and experiments, such as the Benezet experiment, unschooling, and different countries' school hours, to support his claim. Scott also critiques studies that show negative effects of school absences, arguing they are often correlational and fail to account for confounders. He acknowledges some potential non-academic benefits of schooling and provides his confidence levels on various predictions about the effects of missing school. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's links post covers historical oddities, scientific studies, social issues, and tech developments, ranging from pet monkeys to AI progress. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, and technology developments. Some notable items include: a discussion of ways things have improved since the 1980s, an analysis of Alcoholics Anonymous effectiveness, insights into national IQ correlations with development, and updates on COVID-19 responses. The post also touches on topics like depression treatment, artificial intelligence progress, and healthcare system comparisons. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Unlearn Your Pain', finding its psychosomatic theory of chronic pain intriguing but overstated, while acknowledging the book's techniques may still be helpful via placebo effects. Longer summary

Scott reviews the book 'Unlearn Your Pain' by Dr. Howard Schubiner, which argues that most chronic pain is psychosomatic and can be cured through psychological techniques. While Scott finds some of the book's claims intriguing, he is skeptical of its more sweeping assertions about the psychological origins of pain. He examines the evidence for and against psychosomatic theories of chronic pain, concluding that while psychological factors likely play a role, the book overstates its case and ignores contradictory evidence. Scott suggests the book's techniques may work primarily through placebo effects rather than by addressing repressed trauma as claimed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of recent news items, studies, and interesting facts, covering topics from public health to economics to quirky trivia. Longer summary

This post is a collection of diverse news items, studies, and interesting facts curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including public health policies, economics, scientific discoveries, social issues, and quirky facts. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post doesn't have a central theme but rather serves as a roundup of interesting information Scott has come across recently. Shorter summary