Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering current events, scientific studies, and cultural developments, with brief commentary on each story's significance or implications. Longer summary

This is a collection of links covering various topics from current events, science, and culture. It includes news about the seasteading institute's deal with French Polynesia, a meta-analysis on red meat and cardiovascular disease, a discussion of authoritarianism by Tom Pepinsky, and various studies on topics like growth mindset and the Flynn Effect. The links also cover political developments like Obama's attempts to close Guantanamo, Trump's health picks, and new research on school choice experiments. The post maintains a neutral tone while providing brief commentary and context for each link. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, including scientific research, cultural observations, and current events, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various articles and studies, with brief commentary on each. The links cover diverse topics from science, anthropology, politics, and society, including findings about placebo effects in psychiatry, Mormon cultural origins, and college rankings. The format is informal, with Scott providing personal observations and sometimes humorous asides about each link. The post includes both academic studies and news articles, often focusing on unexpected or counterintuitive findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Trump's 'The Art of the Deal', finding it mostly autobiographical with little useful business advice, and revealing Trump's deal-focused worldview. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Donald Trump's 1988 book 'The Art of the Deal'. The review notes that while the book promises business advice, only a small portion actually contains such advice, which is vague and not particularly useful. The bulk of the book is an autobiography focused on Trump's real estate deals. Alexander observes that Trump's approach to business is less about changing systems and more about gaming existing ones through coordination, often involving strategic deception. The review highlights Trump's focus on hiring the best people and knowing the right connections, which Alexander sees as potentially explaining Trump's approach to politics. Overall, Alexander portrays Trump as having a narrow, deal-focused worldview that, while alien to the reviewer, has proven successful. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that polyamory's low black representation is part of a broader pattern across many subcultures, proposing general explanations and criticizing how this issue is often weaponized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that polyamory has a problem with underrepresentation of black people. He argues this is part of a broader pattern where many subcultures and interest groups have low black representation, listing numerous examples. He proposes several general factors that likely contribute to this pattern, such as affluence requirements, education levels, and cultural factors. Scott criticizes how underrepresentation is often used disingenuously to attack groups, and expresses frustration that polyamory is being singled out for criticism when the pattern is so widespread. Shorter summary

Scott shares a collection of interesting links covering various topics from American chestnut restoration to scientific findings, political events, and cultural observations. Longer summary

This is a Links post where Scott Alexander shares and briefly comments on various interesting news and findings. The post covers diverse topics including the genetic engineering of American chestnut trees, revelations about Dr. Strangelove's accuracy, malaria eradication efforts, scientific studies on topics like exercise and weight loss, and cultural observations. Scott provides his characteristic analytical commentary on each item, often highlighting surprising connections or ironies. The post maintains a mix of scientific, political, and cultural topics, with Scott's commentary ranging from serious analysis to humorous observations. Shorter summary