Scott Alexander reviews comments on his defense of Baby Boomers, clarifying three separate claims about generational fairness and addressing debates about housing policy, Social Security, cultural changes, and whether the structural problems attributed to Boomers are actually universal features of aging populations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his original post defending Baby Boomers from generational criticism. He clarifies that he should have better separated three distinct claims: whether Boomers had it easier, whether the political system favors them unfairly, and whether they're uniquely selfish. He addresses housing policy (particularly California's Proposition 13), cultural changes like divorce and childcare, Social Security technicalities, and whether anti-Boomer sentiment is justified as a political project. Throughout, he emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between 'natural' and 'marked' policy choices, and argues that many problems blamed on Boomers result from broader structural issues like demographic pyramids rather than unique generational selfishness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the ethics of eugenics and population control through fictional debates, comparing historical figures and policies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the ethics of eugenics and population control through a dialogue between fictional characters. The post starts with a debate on whether eugenics can be ethical if implemented voluntarily, then compares the historical impacts of eugenics advocate Francis Galton and population control advocate Paul Ehrlich. It explores how Ehrlich's ideas led to forced sterilizations in India yet he remains respected, while Galton is vilified. The dialogue then debates whether this discrepancy is justified and how to evaluate ideas that led to harmful outcomes. The post ends with a discussion on the role of government in implementing controversial policies for perceived greater goods. Shorter summary

The review analyzes 'Plagues and Peoples' by William H. McNeill, which presents human history as shaped by the interaction between humans, microparasites, and societal structures. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Plagues and Peoples' by William H. McNeill, which frames human history through the lens of microparasites and viruses. The book argues that these invisible forces have shaped civilization, from early human migration out of Africa to the development of complex societies. It explores concepts like disease gradients, the balance between microparasites and macroparasites (like governments), and how these forces influenced historical events and social structures. The review also compares McNeill's work with other big-picture histories and briefly touches on its relevance to the COVID-19 pandemic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues strongly for basic income over basic jobs guarantees, citing numerous advantages of basic income and potential pitfalls of basic jobs programs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues strongly against the idea of a basic jobs guarantee, preferring a basic income guarantee instead. He presents 11 main arguments: 1) Basic jobs don't help the disabled, 2) They don't help caretakers, 3) They don't help parents, 4) Jobs are actually a big cause of poverty, 5) Basic jobs may not pay for themselves through useful work, 6) It's hard to deal with bad workers in a basic jobs system, 7) It's hard for workers to escape bad workplaces, 8) Basic income could fix private industry while basic jobs could destroy it, 9) Basic income supports personal development while basic jobs prevent it, 10) Basic income puts everyone on the same side while basic jobs preserve class divisions, and 11) Work itself is often unpleasant and meaningless. He then addresses counterarguments, including concerns about UBI's effects, the need for work to provide meaning, and the potential benefits of public works. Scott concludes that while basic jobs might be better than nothing, they risk hijacking the utopian potential of basic income and perpetuating many problems of the current system. Shorter summary