Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares the marginal impact of capitalism vs. charity, finding that traditional charity often seems more effective despite capitalism's historical success. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of whether capitalism is more effective than charity in helping others. He compares the impact of investing in a successful company like Instacart to donating to a highly effective charity like Dispensers For Safe Water. While acknowledging capitalism's overall historical success, Scott argues that at the margin, traditional charity often seems to have a greater direct impact. He examines potential second-order effects of capitalism but finds them insufficient to clearly outweigh charity's benefits. The post concludes by considering alternative capitalist-oriented charitable approaches, such as development aid or charter cities, but notes the lack of rigorous evaluation for these options. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism (EA) against recent criticisms, highlighting its accomplishments in global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and other areas. He argues that EA has saved around 200,000 lives, equivalent to ending gun violence, curing AIDS, and preventing a 9/11-scale attack in the US. Scott contends that EA's achievements are often overlooked because they focus on less publicized causes, and that the movement's occasional missteps are minor compared to its positive impact. He emphasizes that EA is a coalition of people who care about logically analyzing important causes, whether broadly popular or not, and encourages readers to investigate and support the most beneficial causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, awarding funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, which awarded funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. He provides details on the awardees, their projects, and the grant amounts. Scott also discusses the challenges of the grant-making process, acknowledges the help he received, and outlines future steps for the program. Shorter summary

Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts. Longer summary

This post covers various prediction markets and forecasting topics. It starts with Metaculus predictions on Puerto Rico statehood, Jeff Bezos' potential investment in anti-aging, crypto site defaults, and the population of Prospera. The author then discusses Polymarket, comparing its liquidity to PredictIt for the NYC mayoral race. The post also analyzes a study on forecasting accuracy from PredictionBook, showing that more experienced predictors perform better and that longer-term predictions are often more accurate. Finally, the author addresses the current debate on inflation predictions, calling for more precise and accountable forecasts from economists and pundits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains discrepancies in animal moral value surveys, highlighting how methodology affects results, and emphasizes the importance of clear research procedures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander updates his previous post about a survey on animal moral value and cortical neuron count. He explains that discrepancies between his results and a replication attempt by Tibbar were due to differences in survey methodology. David Moss from Rethink Priorities conducted a larger survey, revealing that the way participants are allowed to express 'infinite' value for animals significantly affects the results. Scott acknowledges the fragility of these results, as they balance between people valuing all animal lives equally and those giving extremely high values to certain animals. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of clearly explaining research procedures and ensuring links to procedures are correct. Shorter summary