Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary

The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from geography and drug policy to technology and economics, with brief summaries and comments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news stories. It covers a wide range of topics including geography, drug policy, technology, history, economics, science, and politics. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each link, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post doesn't have a central theme but rather serves as a curated list of diverse and intriguing information from various fields. Shorter summary