Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary

A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Viral' by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley, which explores the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reviewer summarizes key points from the book, including evidence for both natural and lab leak hypotheses, the history of lab leaks, the relevance of Wuhan's location, and criticisms of institutional responses. The review also covers technical evidence and debates around it, while emphasizing the reviewer's uncertainty about the pandemic's true origin. The author concludes by reflecting on the role of amateur researchers and the importance of scientific self-correction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott presents a case of postpartum panic attacks, explains the theory of panic as a false suffocation alarm, and discusses how understanding this mechanism can help treat the condition. Longer summary

The post discusses a case of a woman experiencing panic attacks and feelings of suffocation after childbirth. Scott explores Donald Klein's theory of panic disorder as a false suffocation alarm, explaining how the brain monitors CO2 levels and other factors to determine if suffocation is occurring. The theory is linked to postpartum panic attacks due to hormonal changes affecting breathing patterns. Scott explains this to the patient, which helps calm her down. The post concludes by discussing how understanding the mechanism behind panic attacks can be therapeutic, drawing parallels with other psychological experiments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that true logical debate, rarely attempted, could be more effective in changing minds than commonly believed, and is necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques two articles arguing that facts and logic are ineffective in changing people's minds, especially regarding political issues. He contends that true debate, following specific conditions he outlines, is rarely attempted and could be more effective than assumed. He suggests that collaborative truth-seeking and adversarial collaborations could be powerful tools for the media. Alexander argues that logical debate is an asymmetric weapon favoring truth, unlike rhetoric or violence which can be used equally by all sides. He concludes that while improving debate quality is a slow process, it's necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander speculates on a future 'ascended economy' where AI-run corporations dominate, discussing potential implications and risks of such a system. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of an 'ascended economy', where economic activity becomes increasingly detached from human control. Scott Alexander speculates on a future where corporations are run by algorithms, workers are replaced by robots, and even investment decisions are made by AI. He discusses the potential implications of such a system, including the formation of self-sustaining economic loops that don't involve humans, the difficulty of regulating AI-run corporations, and the risks of goal misalignment in superintelligent economic entities. While acknowledging that this scenario is highly speculative and unlikely to occur exactly as described, Scott uses it to explore important questions about AI safety, economic evolution, and the long-term consequences of automation. Shorter summary