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Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years.
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics.
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year.
Scott Alexander makes belated predictions for 2015, covering world events and personal life with varying confidence levels.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.