Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting.

Scott Alexander's poem, inspired by a tragic aid airdrop incident in Gaza, explores the challenges and unintended consequences of altruism through various philosophical lenses.

A critical review of 'The Dawn of Everything' by Graeber and Wengrow, examining their challenge to standard prehistory narratives and proposing an alternative hypothesis.

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each.

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy.

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages.

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach.

A collection of interesting links covering science, politics, and culture, with topics ranging from desalinization and medical studies to quirky historical facts and political developments.

The post criticizes unnecessary college degree requirements in various professions and proposes an alternative to Bernie Sanders' free college tuition plan.

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, economics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and observations on each topic.