Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's poem, inspired by a tragic aid airdrop incident in Gaza, explores the challenges and unintended consequences of altruism through various philosophical lenses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a poetic reflection on the challenges and unintended consequences of trying to help others, inspired by a tragic incident where an aid airdrop killed five people in Gaza. The poem explores various philosophical approaches to altruism and social responsibility, ultimately settling on a utilitarian perspective while acknowledging its limitations. The verses touch on historical figures, personal growth, and the complexities of moral decision-making in a world where good intentions can lead to harmful outcomes. Shorter summary

A critical review of 'The Dawn of Everything' by Graeber and Wengrow, examining their challenge to standard prehistory narratives and proposing an alternative hypothesis. Longer summary

This book review of 'The Dawn of Everything' by David Graeber and David Wengrow critically examines the authors' attempt to challenge standard narratives of human prehistory. The reviewer praises the book's wealth of archaeological evidence but criticizes its political bias. The review explores the book's key arguments about the diversity of prehistoric societies, the non-revolutionary nature of agriculture, and the 'indigenous critique' of Western civilization. It also discusses the book's treatment of the 'Sapient Paradox' and proposes an alternative hypothesis about prehistoric social organization based on 'raw social power'. The review concludes by drawing parallels between this prehistoric 'Gossip Trap' and modern social media dynamics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy. Longer summary

This post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries: United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Lebanon. The authors review each country's history, constitution, democratic institutions, and human rights record to assess the extent to which liberal democracy has taken hold. They find a wide spectrum, from Tunisia's robust democracy to Iran's theocratic regime, with the other countries falling in between. The authors conclude that while it's possible for Muslim countries to adopt liberal democracy, Islam often acts as an obstacle, and most Muslim countries have only taken small steps in that direction so far. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines claims that Trump is an isolationist and safer choice than Clinton regarding foreign policy. He argues that Trump's statements and past positions suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions. Alexander analyzes Trump's statements on ISIS, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, finding many hawkish positions. He discusses Trump's criticism of NATO and international trade agreements, suggesting this could destabilize the post-WWII peace. Alexander then examines Clinton's positions, arguing they are more moderate and predictable. He concludes that while Clinton's foreign policy isn't perfect, she represents a lower-variance, more stable choice compared to the unpredictability of Trump's potential actions. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, politics, and culture, with topics ranging from desalinization and medical studies to quirky historical facts and political developments. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics from scientific studies to political events. It includes interesting findings about desalinization in Israel, studies about alcohol consumption and poverty, updates on linguistics paper reviews showing gender bias, and various cultural observations. The post also covers some unusual facts about military dogs, Mennonite communities, and state traditions. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious topics, often including Scott's brief commentary or humorous observations alongside the links. Shorter summary

The post criticizes unnecessary college degree requirements in various professions and proposes an alternative to Bernie Sanders' free college tuition plan. Longer summary

This post critiques the current higher education system, particularly in the United States, by drawing parallels with a fictional tulip subsidy scenario. The author argues that requiring college degrees for many jobs is unnecessary, expensive, and harmful to society. He uses examples from medicine, teaching, and other professions to illustrate how degree requirements often don't correlate with job performance or outcomes. The post then criticizes Bernie Sanders' proposal for free college tuition, suggesting it would perpetuate a broken system. Instead, the author proposes making 'college degree' a protected characteristic in hiring practices to combat degree inflation. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, economics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and observations on each topic. Longer summary

This is a links post featuring various interesting news stories, studies, and websites. The topics range from historical oddities (like King Strang's Michigan island kingdom and the Candid Camera hijacking incident), to scientific studies (about morning sickness and IQ, gene therapy), to economic analysis (about disposable income and healthcare costs), and cultural observations. Scott includes personal commentary and humor throughout, making connections between different topics and offering his perspective on various issues. Shorter summary