A links post featuring various news and articles about politics, science, and culture, with Scott's commentary on research papers and current events. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and articles from around the web. Topics range from climate change and politics to scientific studies and charitable giving. Scott comments on several research papers, including ones about non-citizen voting and healthcare in Cuba. The post also includes interesting side notes about geography, prison marriages, and literary references. Many of the links are accompanied by Scott's brief commentary or witty observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election shouldn't dramatically change our understanding of politics and society. He criticizes both extreme predictions of a certain Hillary Clinton victory and a certain Donald Trump victory, pointing out that the race is close enough that the outcome could be determined by random factors like weather. Alexander suggests that people should precommit to their views on politics and society rather than drastically changing them based on the election result. He uses his own January 2016 prediction of Trump having a 20% chance of winning (conditional on winning the Republican primary) as an example of a reasonable prediction, given that prediction markets on election eve give Trump an 17.9% chance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2015, assessing their accuracy. He lists 35 predictions across world events and personal life, marking successful ones and crossing out failed ones. He then scores them based on confidence levels, presenting the results in a graph. Overall, Scott considers it a successful year for his predictions, with good calibration except at the 50% confidence level. He also comments on Scott Adams' reported prediction success for 2015, suggesting ways to verify the authenticity of such claims and expressing interest in seeing Adams make concrete predictions for 2016. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the rise of outsider political figures like Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, attributing their unexpected success to a growing trend of ideological polarization and distrust of the establishment. He argues that as the political spectrum widens, traditional politicians struggle to balance appealing to their base while remaining electable, creating an opening for candidates who signal their opposition to the establishment. The post compares Trump's and Corbyn's seemingly opposite yet similar rises to power, and suggests this trend might explain other political surprises like Bernie Sanders' popularity and Obama's 2008 victory over Hillary Clinton. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, economics, and culture, with key stories about psychology study replication failures and various scientific findings. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Scott shares updates on topics ranging from economics to psychology to politics. Key highlights include a discussion of the psychology replication crisis where only half of major studies replicated, new findings about e-cigarettes being safer than smoking, insights into carbon offset fraud in Russia and Ukraine, and various scientific studies on topics like genetics and obesity, women in STEM fields, and the effects of school schedules on academic performance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques feminist stereotyping of nerds, arguing that nerds' social struggles are real and not simply male entitlement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Laurie Penny's article about 'nerd entitlement,' arguing that feminists often unfairly stereotype and shame nerdy men. He contends that nerds' social difficulties and pain are real, and not simply a result of male entitlement or privilege. Alexander criticizes the tendency to dismiss nerds' struggles and accuse them of misogyny, arguing this perpetuates harmful stereotypes. He calls for more understanding and nuance in discussions of gender, privilege, and social dynamics in nerd culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to an essay about trigger warnings in rationalist spaces, arguing that the community's purpose is dispassionate discussion and that everyone, not just marginalized groups, has triggers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to an essay by Apophemi about trigger warnings and discourse in the rationalist community. He argues that the rationalist community is already a 'safe space' for people who want to discuss ideas dispassionately, and that trying to make it safe for everyone would fundamentally change its nature. He shares his own experiences of being triggered by social justice rhetoric, and suggests that everyone has triggers, not just marginalized groups. Scott also discusses issues around language use, slurs, and political correctness, arguing that context and intent matter when determining what language is harmful. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting links and studies, covering topics from education research and IQ testing to controversial social issues and scientific discoveries, while adding his commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a collection of interesting links with Scott's commentary. The links cover a wide range of topics including education research showing long-term effects of good teachers, studies about IQ test motivation, controversial social policies, viral stories that turned out to be hoaxes, and scientific discoveries. Scott provides context and critical analysis for each link, often connecting them to broader themes about social movements, research methodology, and policy effectiveness. The post ends with some interesting scientific findings about inherited memories in mice and a personal request for accommodation in New York. Shorter summary