Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary

Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, discussing its exploration of prion diseases and their impact, with updated perspectives on the book's conclusions. Longer summary

This review discusses 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, a book about prion diseases published in 2006. The review covers the book's exploration of various prion diseases, including fatal familial insomnia, kuru, mad cow disease, and chronic wasting disease. It highlights the book's focus on the historical, scientific, and cultural aspects of these diseases, as well as the key figures involved in prion research. The reviewer also provides updated information and critiques some of the book's conclusions in light of more recent research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience donating a kidney, from initial motivation to post-surgery recovery, while discussing the broader context of organ donation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his journey to donate a kidney, including his motivations, the medical process, and the challenges he faced. He discusses the effectiveness of kidney donation compared to other forms of altruism, the stigma around mental health in the donation process, and the need for systemic changes to address the kidney shortage. Scott also reflects on the experience of the surgery and recovery, and encourages others to consider donation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott investigates the claim that cold-related deaths account for 10% of global mortality, exploring various factors and potential impacts of global warming on death rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprising claim that cold-related deaths account for nearly 10% of all deaths globally. He investigates various studies and data sources to understand this phenomenon, discussing the differences between cold-related and winter-related deaths, regional variations in mortality rates, and potential mechanisms behind these deaths. The post delves into the complexities of adapting to different climates, the role of influenza in winter mortality, and cardiovascular effects of cold weather. Finally, Scott examines the potential impact of global warming on mortality rates, finding that most scientific analyses predict a net increase in deaths despite the reduction in cold-related mortality. Shorter summary

Scott examines how scientific research has challenged traditional bodybuilding wisdom about rest periods, questioning the reliability of practical wisdom ('metis') compared to academic studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the relationship between bodybuilding lore and scientific research, using an article by fitness researcher Menno Henselmans as a starting point. The post examines the traditional bodybuilding wisdom about short rest periods between sets, which was believed to be optimal for muscle growth. Scott then explores how recent scientific studies have contradicted this belief, showing that longer rest periods can be more effective. He uses this example to reflect on the concept of 'metis' (practical wisdom) in bodybuilding communities and its limitations when compared to academic scientific research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the optimal dosage of Lexapro, comparing it to other antidepressants and exploring the reasons behind its effectiveness at lower doses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of the right dose for Lexapro (escitalopram), an antidepressant. He examines official recommendations, compares Lexapro to other SSRIs, and investigates why Lexapro might be effective at lower doses. The post delves into studies on antidepressant dosing, the unique properties of Lexapro, and the potential benefits and risks of higher doses. Scott concludes that while there's no strong evidence for high doses of any antidepressant being more effective, prescribing higher doses of Lexapro might be as safe as other SSRIs and potentially more beneficial in some cases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines a new theory on antidepressant mechanisms, expressing skepticism while acknowledging its potential significance if proven true. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a recent study proposing a new theory for how antidepressants work, which suggests they bind directly to TrkB receptors rather than acting through serotonin. He explains the study's findings and their potential implications, but expresses skepticism about the theory. Scott outlines several reasons why he finds the new theory unconvincing, including existing evidence supporting the serotonin hypothesis, issues with the study's claims about drug accumulation, and expert opinions on the difficulties of TrkB research. He concludes by stating he will stick with the conventional theory for now, while remaining open to future developments. Shorter summary

The post explores how emotional learning creates hard-to-update mental models, drawing parallels between psychotherapy, psychedelics, and rationality techniques in overcoming these 'mental mountains'. Longer summary

This post discusses the book 'Unlocking The Emotional Brain' (UtEB) and its implications for understanding biases and mental processes. The author explores how emotional learning creates unconscious predictive models that guide behavior, and how these models can be difficult to update even in the face of contradictory evidence. The post draws parallels between UtEB's approach, psychedelic therapy, and rationality techniques, suggesting that they all aim to overcome mental 'mountains' that separate different areas of knowledge or belief. The author proposes that these mental separations might be a necessary feature of how our brains generalize from experiences, but can also lead to problems like cognitive biases and psychiatric symptoms. The post concludes by considering how this framework might help understand and address deeply held but irrational beliefs. Shorter summary

Scott examines how the 5-HTTLPR gene was wrongly linked to depression for years, discussing the implications for psychiatric research and genetic testing products. Longer summary

This post discusses the history and eventual debunking of the 5-HTTLPR gene's supposed role in depression. Initially, numerous studies claimed to find links between 5-HTTLPR and various mental health conditions, interactions with stress, and even antidepressant efficacy. However, a recent large-scale study by Border et al. found no evidence for these claims, suggesting that hundreds of previous studies were likely false positives. The post explores the implications of this finding, including concerns about the reliability of psychiatric research, the tendency for studies to reinforce existing beliefs, and the questionable validity of pharmacogenomic testing products that rely on genes like 5-HTTLPR. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the risks of Adderall use, analyzing medical, addiction, tolerance, and neurotoxicity concerns, concluding that the benefits outweigh the risks for well-informed patients. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the risks of Adderall use, examining medical risks, addiction potential, tolerance development, and possible neurotoxicity. He critically analyzes existing research and shares his clinical experience, ultimately concluding that while there are some concerning risks, they are not severe enough to stop prescribing stimulants to patients who might benefit from them, provided they are well-informed about the risks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the synapse hypothesis of depression, which links decreased synaptogenesis to various depression research findings, and raises questions for future investigation. Longer summary

This post explores the synapse hypothesis of depression, which proposes that decreased synaptogenesis, regulated by the protein complex mTORC1, may be the underlying cause of depression. Scott Alexander reviews various lines of research on depression, including life adversity, inflammation, serotonin, glutamate, folate, and electroconvulsive therapy, and shows how the synapse hypothesis could potentially unify these diverse findings. He then expresses some skepticism about the theory, noting that it's easy to find connections between any proposed cause and various symptoms. The post concludes with six questions or areas of confusion that the author hopes will be addressed in future research, including why decreased synaptogenesis should cause depression specifically, why BDNF can't be used as a direct treatment, and how bipolar disorder fits into this framework. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Unlearn Your Pain', finding its psychosomatic theory of chronic pain intriguing but overstated, while acknowledging the book's techniques may still be helpful via placebo effects. Longer summary

Scott reviews the book 'Unlearn Your Pain' by Dr. Howard Schubiner, which argues that most chronic pain is psychosomatic and can be cured through psychological techniques. While Scott finds some of the book's claims intriguing, he is skeptical of its more sweeping assertions about the psychological origins of pain. He examines the evidence for and against psychosomatic theories of chronic pain, concluding that while psychological factors likely play a role, the book overstates its case and ignores contradictory evidence. Scott suggests the book's techniques may work primarily through placebo effects rather than by addressing repressed trauma as claimed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander gives a satirical graduation speech questioning the value of formal education and proposing an alternative basic income system, emphasizing kindness and epistemic humility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander delivers a satirical and thought-provoking graduation speech that questions the value of formal education. He compares the conventional path of education and career to an alternative where people receive a basic income instead. The speech critiques the current education system, job market, and societal structures while emphasizing the importance of kindness and epistemic humility. Scott uses humor and irony to challenge graduates' assumptions about their future and the world they're entering. Shorter summary

Scott critiques the misuse of consent-based arguments to justify bans, arguing that they often disguise sacred values and can lead to more harm than good. Longer summary

This post critiques the misuse of consent-based arguments to justify banning practices. Scott starts with a satirical proposal to ban healthcare to prevent non-consensual treatment, then extends this to banning non-Democrat candidates to prevent accidental voting. He argues that these 'fake consensualism' arguments are often used to disguise sacred values as neutral principles. The post explains that while consent is important, banning practices entirely based on the possibility of non-consent often leads to more harm than good. Scott concludes by calling for a higher burden of proof for such arguments and suggesting that Basic Income Guarantee would be a better way to ensure genuine consent. Shorter summary